The floating electorate

Forget exit and opinion polls. Allahabad's boatmen are more clued in.

This is the fourth time I have come to the Sangam at Allahabad on a pre-election pilgrimage to garner the political wisdom of probably the most perceptive pollsters in the country — the boatmen who row thousands of worshippers everyday to the holy site where the whirling waters of Gangaji and Yamunaji merge. Known as mallahs, the humble boatmen quietly listen to the spiritual, personal and political murmurs of pilgrims from every corner of the motherland.

HT Image

The mallahs are not aware of any grand opinion or exit polls. After a good deal of prodding and probing, they divulge a remarkably acute account of the views of their boatloads of pilgrims. On my earlier visits to the Sangam in 1977, 1984 and 1996, they gave me astonishingly accurate forecasts of the election results.

The consensus among a group of mallahs sitting with me on a sandbank is that the vote this time will be greatly fragmented and that neither the BJP-led alliance nor the Congress and its allies will get a clear majority of seats in Parliament. (In 1996, the mallahs had also told me that the election result would be messy and unclear.) Pappulal Nishad declares that caste is the defining factor in the electoral process, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh.

To test the mallahs’ contentions, Gautam Nishad rows me to the line of stakes marking the exact confluence of the Ganga and the Yamuna. Parked at the Sangam are about 30 boats, each crowded with at least 20 pilgrims from a particular family or clan. Gautam enthusiastically joins me in carrying out a rough straw poll. We draw alongside a boat and ask the occupants where they are from and, after a bit of friendly banter, ask them who they will vote for.

This boatload are from Jhansi in UP and their spokesman is Ravindra Singh. They will vote for the SP. Gautam steers me to another boat overloaded with pilgrims from Jabalpur in Madhya Pradesh. Ramesh Chaudhuri from this second boat says they will vote for the BJP. We head for a third boat holding a group from Bhavnagar in Gujarat. Bhauchandbhai tells me that they have already voted for the BJP. He insistently shouts across the water that I must mark his words that 21 of the 26 seats in Gujarat will go to the BJP.

I bid goodbye to the mallahs and move towards an awning under which sits Rameshwar Nath Pandey, a Brahmin priest who resides beside the Sangam and ministers to the spiritual needs of the pilgrims for a material price. He will be casting his vote for the BJP. Pappulal Nishad’s assertion that caste is the deciding factor is proving uncannily correct.

Next day, I travel to the predominantly Brahmin village of Barwah, some 20 kilometres from Allahabad. Barwah is part of the Chail parliamentary constituency reserved for Scheduled Caste candidates. Prem Narayan Tiwari, a retired food inspector, straightaway tells me that nobody visits Barwah to ask for their vote as it is renowned as a ‘permanent BJP-RSS village’. Every Brahmin here votes for the BJP and will continue to do so.

At the neighbouring mixed population village of Bhagwatpur, the local teashop owner, Bachalal Gupta, is all for the BJP which has brought about great progress for the entire country under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He is the only one who talks like an India Shining ad.

A few metres away in a decrepit mud hut, Raj Rani, the sharp wife of Mewalal the dhobi, bitterly complains about what a nasty village she has to live in where the Thakurs and other upper castes make them labour without payment or sometimes grudgingly pay them a measly amount.

She is proud of her bright 17-year-old daughter, Amrawati, who is going to a private school for which she has to pay Rs 50 a month. Next term, Amrawati may have to stop going to school as her parents may not be able to afford the fee. The government school in the village hardly functions. Raj Rani is visibly upset about the propertied goondas who dominate the village. Her eyes shine at the mention of Mayawati whose elephant symbol she will vote for.

It is becoming apparent that you can predict the voting preference of any individual in this area of eastern UP by just asking for the full name which reveals that person’s caste background. The exceptions are the Muslims who are increasingly alienated from the election process and who are also clearly divided about whom they will be voting for. Their votes will be distributed between the SP, the Congress and the BSP, with just a few voting for the BJP. They will be the only group not acting as a vote bank.

At an attar (perfume) shop on Noorullah Road in Allahabad, the owner, Sarfaraz Ahmed, has not bothered to get a voter identity card and says that he will not be voting. A Muslim neighbour joins in the conversation and says that the Muslims of Allahabad, Chail and Phulpur (a bordering constituency) do not identify themselves with any party.