Unlike exit polls that rarely match the final mandate, Today's Chanakya has been spot on for the second consecutive time in predicting the final outcome of an election. It has been the only exit poll that was closest to the verdict delivered by 505 million Indian voters.
Unlike exit polls that rarely match the final mandate, Today's Chanakya has been spot on for the second consecutive time in predicting the final outcome of an election. It has been the only exit poll that was closest to the verdict delivered by 505 million Indian voters.
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The political arm of the consumer research agency RNB Research, Today's Chanakya had predicted 340 seats for the National Democratic Alliance with the BJP's share as 291 seats on May 12, the last date of the polls.
On Friday, the NDA is slated to get 329 seats with the BJP crossing the half way mark with 279 seats. The UPA leads in about 70 seats with the Congress ahead in 48, close to Today's Chanakya prediction of 70 for UPA and 57 for the Congress.
"We have been correct about 99% times," said a buoyant VK Bajaj, chief executive officer of the company specialising in sample surveys, after Today's Chanakya's exit poll predicted a Modi wave in India. "We believe in quality of the samples and not just quantity."
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A company spokesperson added that they ensure that the sampling of polls is done as per caste and religious configuration of a constituency. "We check and re-check the sample size to ensure that most parts of a constituency are covered. No community that can impact poll result is left out and we use multiple question methods to catch the voter's preference," the spokesperson added.
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A company spokesperson added that they ensure that the sampling of polls is done as per caste and religious configuration of a constituency. "We check and re-check the sample size to ensure that most parts of a constituency are covered. No community that can impact poll result is left out and we use multiple question methods to catch the voter's preference," the spokesperson added.
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In December 2013, when most exit opinions termed Arvind Kejriwal as a media creation without much impact on voters, Today's Chanakya gave him 31 seats and the BJP 29. Most pollsters termed it as a bluff but when the results came, the exit poll was proved almost right. In reality, AAP got 28 seats and the BJP, 32.
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In 2014, Today's Chanakya gave BJP a decisive edge in the Congress-ruled Karnataka hinting at a revival of BS Veddyruppa. This was when all other exit polls predicted that it would be a close contest between the two national parties. Similarly, the pollster predicted a clean sweep for the BJP in Rajasthan and Gujarat. Its prediction of the seats won by different parties in Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal also proved to be true.
The company's rivals in predicting results, however, were way away off the mark with none sensing that the NDA would cross the 300 mark. The CNN-IBN said the BJP-led alliance could get 261-283 seats, Times Now 249, ABP Nielsen 281, Headline Today 261 to 283, NDTV-Hansa Research 279 and India TV 289 seats. Most of the exit polls did not see the UPA alliance that was in power for 10 years getting less than 100 seats.
Chetan Chauhan is the National Affairs Editor looking into all aspects of news and features from across India. A Chevening scholar with over three decades of experience in reporting and news management, Chetan has extensively covered all important aspects of the social sector, political economy, environment and climate change nationally and internationally. He did a journalism course at the Reuters Institute of Journalism in Oxford and Digital Media training at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. He started as a reporter with The Statesman in 1996 and joined the Hindustan Times in 2000 in the metro bureau covering environment, crime and Delhi politics. He covered hot local news, from the Jessica Lal murder case to the rebellion of Delhi Congress MLAs against then Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, to the replacement of toxic vehicle fuel with cleaner compressed natural gas (CNG) in the national capital. Some of his stories on air pollution became part of the Supreme Court’s landmark MC Mehta versus Government of India case in the National Capital Region (NCR), forcing the government to take corrective measures. As part of the national political bureau since 2004, he covered important central sectors such as environment, education, social justice, labour, rural development, water resources, renewable energy, agriculture, broadcasting and the Planning Commission for more than a decade producing several exclusive and investigative breaking stories. His specialisation is the environment, having covered at least a dozen United Nations global conferences on climate change, biodiversity and wildlife including climate summits in Paris, Copenhagen and Bali. He also covered India’s two five-year plans ---11th and 12th and reported on drafting and execution of right based laws such as Right to Education, Right to Information and rural job guarantee law, MG-NREGA, now being introduced in new format as VG-RAM-G Act. He has in-depth knowledge of social sector issues. He was one of the first to report on tigers vanishing from Sariska and Panna wildlife reserves in 2004 and 2008, respectively, leading to the setting up of the National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) and the introduction of stringent penal provisions for poaching. He has written extensively on the rising human-animal conflict in India and the degradation of India’s biodiversity hotspots because of mining and other activities. Since 2004, Chetan has covered Parliament comprehensively and participated in training on the nuanced coverage of Parliament proceedings. He has travelled extensively across India to cover national and provincial elections since 1998, especially in the Hindi heartland states, considered India’s road to power. He writes a regular column for Hindustan Times, Ecostani, on important national politics, economy, Himalayan ecology and environmental issues. His other responsibilities include providing inputs for edits and edit page articles for the publication, apart from managing news flow from across India.
