Turnouts and turn-offs

if one takes a quick look at the voter turn-out in various states, one can be forgiven for thinking that different countries are in the middle of their different polls.

A nation has been voting for the last few weeks. However, if one takes a quick look at the voter turn-out in various states, one can be forgiven for thinking that different countries are in the middle of their different polls. Over 50 per cent of the 10.82 crore electorate exercised their franchise in seven states during the third phase of polling on Wednesday. What is striking is the variation in turn-out figures from different parts of the country. While a 16 per cent turn-out in J&K’s Anantnag district is understandable, how does one explain the rather tepid figure of 50 per cent for Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, both seen as uber-political states?

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The relative apathy in the BIMARU states (Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan both had a 55 per cent turn-out) could be attributed to the voters’ perception that their individual votes don’t really matter in a political landscape where the herd instincts of caste, sub-caste and religion reign supreme. The pleasant surprise comes from Nagaland, 80 per cent of whose electorate left polling booths after making a choice. Last year, the turn-out in the North-east state was 76.25 per cent. (The honours of highest turn-out in the nation went to neighbouring Sikkim at 81.71 per cent.) Psephological wisdom has it that a high voter turnout usually suggests an electorate reacting to an emotive issue — 64 per cent of the electorate voted
in the 1984 Lok Sabha polls that came after Indira Gandhi’s assassination. Otherwise, it suggests an electorate voting to push out a government. With the rise of single-state parties, issues have veered away from being ‘national’ to more ‘localised’.