China and Russia’s agreement with the US, Britain, Germany and France, that Iran must completely suspend its nuclear enrichment activities is a positive development. There is yet no agreement on whether the case should be referred to the UN Security Council. The EU-3 — Britain, France and Germany — and the US favour such a reference, which they feel is long overdue. But while the Chinese and the Russians agree that Iran should fully suspend its activities, they are hesitant to endorse that course of action at this juncture. India, too, would qualify to be in this category. It had agreed to vote with the Western powers last September at the meeting of the 35-member board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency, on the understanding that there would be no immediate referral, and, diplomacy would be given more time to resolve the problem.
There may be no agreement on reference to the UNSC, but there is acceptance that Iran’s nuclear activities are a matter of concern, no matter what Teheran says. The area of agreement between China and Russia and the Western powers, may be limited, but they are clear enough to give Teheran some food for thought. It must decide whether it would like to keep to the path of confrontation and deal with the world community through threats, such as that to cut off all ties with the IAEA in the wake of a UN referral or ratchet up oil prices, or tackle it by negotiated compromise.
Simultaneously, to keep up the pressure, the three EU countries that have been trying to work out a negotiated settlement with Iran, Britain, France and Germany, have called for an emergency meeting of the IAEA on February 2. Iran now has about three weeks to act on these issues, as well as to make up its mind on a perfectly reasonable Russian offer to produce enriched uranium for Iran in its territory to prevent its diversion to a weapons programme. There is a lot at stake for everyone on the issue and so both Iran and the Western countries must exercise great caution in handling the situation in the coming weeks.