The day results of elections in five states were announced, I went on a fortnight’s vacation from column writing. By the time I resumed my vocation, the news had become stale and every political journalist had aired his or her views on the subject. I pondered on whether or not the outcome would have lasting effect on the national scene. I came to these conclusions: First, that ‘long term’ should be construed as no longer than the next three years or whenever the next general elections are held. Second, that Leftist forces have consolidated their hold in Bengal and Kerala and will wield more influence in determining politics of the central government in social legislation and relations with foreign powers, notably the US. And finally, state elections have little bearing on the main battle between forces of secularism and socialism on the one side and community-based conservative parties led by the BJP and its allies — the Shiv Sena, VHP, Muslim League, Akali Dal and their likes — on the other.
In Tamil Nadu, the clash between Jayalalitha’s AIADMK and Karunanidhi’s DMK had little or no bearing on the national scene. And the spectacular victory of Sonia Gandhi from the family pocketborough, Rai Bareli, confirmed that she will not only remain the only cohesive glue to hold a party splintering into factions, but also the decisive voice in determining who will be Prime Minister.
The triumphs of the Communists are a sign of good health. They are free of religious bigotry, superstition and communal divisions. In comparison with other parties, including the Congress, they are less faction-ridden, more disciplined and less corrupt. My only reservations are frequent misuse of their hold on the working classes by calling for strikes, often totally unjustified, and causing enormous inconvenience to the general public and entailing huge losses to the country. Their victories should infuse them with more self-confidence and a sense of responsibility. I am sure they will not let down the central government, only keep up pressure on it.
The popularity of the Sangh parivar and its allies was not tested in these elections; they will be at the next general elections. I doubt if they will be able to hold the states they govern. Their top leadership has been eroded. Vajpayee, though much respected, is a spent force. Advani has hacked his legs with his own hands. Even his capacity of creating communal mischiefs has been curbed. Jaswant Singh and Arun Jaitley, though able and upright men, are not election winners. Their think-tank comprising Sudarshan and Govindacharya are empty of ideas. So are their Akali allies: their alliance with the BJP is one of convenience. The only young leader capable of putting up a fight is Vasundhara Raje Scindia. She will not be able to make a significant difference. The real Kurukshetra between armies of secular socialism and conservative communalism will be fought mainly in UP and Bihar. It would be foolish to predict the outcome, but I do not think there is much hope for the BJP to stage a comeback.
{{/usCountry}}The popularity of the Sangh parivar and its allies was not tested in these elections; they will be at the next general elections. I doubt if they will be able to hold the states they govern. Their top leadership has been eroded. Vajpayee, though much respected, is a spent force. Advani has hacked his legs with his own hands. Even his capacity of creating communal mischiefs has been curbed. Jaswant Singh and Arun Jaitley, though able and upright men, are not election winners. Their think-tank comprising Sudarshan and Govindacharya are empty of ideas. So are their Akali allies: their alliance with the BJP is one of convenience. The only young leader capable of putting up a fight is Vasundhara Raje Scindia. She will not be able to make a significant difference. The real Kurukshetra between armies of secular socialism and conservative communalism will be fought mainly in UP and Bihar. It would be foolish to predict the outcome, but I do not think there is much hope for the BJP to stage a comeback.
{{/usCountry}}India’s immediate future is in the hands of Sonia Gandhi. She has proved to be an astute politician with her hand on the pulse of the people. She has played her cards with great skill. She knows that if she takes over as PM, she would be playing into the hands of her adversaries. She treated moves of sycophants like Ajit Jogi with contempt, knowing his intentions were dishonest. She had a choice of prime ministerial material in Arjun Singh, Chidambaram and Pranab Mukherjee. All three are politically tainted. She chose Manmohan Singh, who has no political base or ambitions but commands respect for his ability, integrity and humility. Furthermore, he does not shoot his mouth and knows how to get on with people who disagree with him. She could not have made a better choice. I have no doubt in my mind that the Sonia-Manmohan government will run its full term. Nor any about the outcome of the next general elections. Have you?
Way of our Babucracy
A letter sent by Speed Post by my publishers, Oxford University Press, Delhi, dated May 5, 2006, reached me ten days later in Kasauli on May 15. Ordinary mail, including 25 paise post cards, usually take three days; registered letters take four days. Perhaps post-office babus should call it ‘Snail Speed Post’. Privately-owned couriers services are no better. No letter or parcel is delivered the day after it is handed over. What was launched with great fanfare has succumbed to national lethargy.
Moreover, most of the print on receipts of registered letters are so faded that no one can read them. The Executive Officer of the Cantonment Board, Kasauli, sends me a long list of queries about my house every year: How much land is attached to the house? When did I buy it? How often have I rented it and at what rate? All this to assess house tax. More than three quarters of this form is not readable. So, year after year, against these columns, I write down ‘not legible’. It makes no difference to him; it is his duty to send these forms on a particular date. He is meticulous in discharging his duties and could not care less if recipients at the other end fail to make head or tail of them.
Farmers’ woes
Showers of onions and potatoes
Greeted the Minister who was comatose;
Beware, said the farmers,
If you continue to harm us,
It will be rotten eggs and tomatoes.
(Courtesy Prabhaat S. Vaidya, Mumbai)