NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has finally revealed the broad elements of India’s post-Uri response, delivering a nuanced message to Pakistan during a speech at a public event in Kozikhode on Saturday.
The strategy appears to have three key elements — improving domestic morale by changing the narrative from obvious failure to little known successes, distinguishing between Pakistani people and rulers and focusing on common challenges, and signalling to Islamabad-Rawalpindi that it has enough internal vulnerabilities and keeping the doors for covert action open.
Modi highlighted the successes of India’s forces. In the past few months, the army had foiled 17 infiltration attempts — and thus 17 possible terror attacks. In recent times, 110 terrorists had been killed. At a time when there are doubts about the capabilities of the Indian state, the PM is emphasising on strengths, and indicating the situation is not as dire and could be worse.
India has long recognised the heterogeneity of the Pakistani establishment — particularly the distinction between civilian rulers and the military-ISI complex. But Modi publicly articulated another distinction — between rulers and the Pakistani people. He openly asked the Pakistani people to urge their rulers to fight another war -war against hunger, poverty, unemployment, and for development. India too would fight this war.
“I found his approach deeply innovative. Modi went beyond normal diplomatic channels and used a variant of strategic communication to reach out directly to the people of Pakistan,” commodore (retd) C Uday Bhaskar, director, Society for Policy Studies, told HT. “No Indian PM has done it, and I think it will rattle the Pakistani leadership.” But this was coupled with hard signals.
{{/usCountry}}“I found his approach deeply innovative. Modi went beyond normal diplomatic channels and used a variant of strategic communication to reach out directly to the people of Pakistan,” commodore (retd) C Uday Bhaskar, director, Society for Policy Studies, told HT. “No Indian PM has done it, and I think it will rattle the Pakistani leadership.” But this was coupled with hard signals.
{{/usCountry}}The PM asked the Pakistani people to question their rulers about why their own country had not been able to deal with issues and grievances in PoK, Gilgit, Sindh, Balochistan, and of Pashtuns. He reminded them of the loss of East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.
Modi did not harp on what India would do in these areas. But it was a signal that Delhi was well aware of Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities and may not hesitate to capitalise on it. By speaking of Bangladesh, Modi was reminding Pakistani establishment of a wound it has not yet recovered from and what India was capable of.
By speaking of Balochistan, the PM was following up on his reference to the region in the Independence Day address. By speaking of Pashtuns, he opened a new front. By speaking of Sindh, Modi was also reminding Pakistan of the dark days that Karachi saw not so long back.
Modi’s speech indicates any direct military response is now unlikely. India will focus on strengthening domestic security. It will continue to make efforts to diplomatically expose Pakistan, while keeping the moral high ground. And it may seek to leverage Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities.