In Jammu attacks, a clear imprint of the Pakistan army
There is, by all accounts, enough intelligence that points to a direct participation of the Pakistan army, and not just in the conventional sense of the Pakistan Deep State patronising security assets against India
Something sinister is unfolding in Jammu.
While all terrorism is ghastly and every soldier’s life lost at the front line is a tragedy, the nature of the attacks suggests that this challenge is different from the norm that security forces are accustomed to.
“Sniper-like military precision” is the phrase being used by veterans and counter-insurgency heroes who have fought terrorists in these very mountains. As coffins of young men, in their early twenties, come home to distraught but stoic parents, experts flag what seems different. Even though the soldiers were appropriately shielded by bulletproof vests and helmets, the infiltrators were still able to get their shot by aiming at the relatively tiny exposed parts.
The weapons wielded by the terrorists are highly sophisticated too; their internal communication has not been easy to intercept. The forests of the Pir Panjal also provide camouflage and tactical heights from where they are able to lead ambush assaults on Army soldiers. Forty-eight soldiers have been killed in action in the Jammu region alone since December 2021 — 11 of these fatalities have been in 2024. More soldiers than terrorists have been killed in Jammu this year.
Kashmir Tigers, a shadow group of the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), has claimed responsibility for these attacks. That by itself means very little. The name itself reflects a tactical attempt to give the outfit a political rather than religious dimension. But these are cosmetic face masks that may hide the insidious reality of what is going on.
Let us remember that we are now only a few days away from the 25th anniversary commemoration of the Kargil War of 1999 between India and Pakistan. July 26 is celebrated as Vijay Diwas every year, and this year is a special milestone. Let us also remind ourselves of the role of the Northern Light Infantry soldiers of the Pakistan army in that war. It is a different matter that — in the worst disservice to a man in uniform — the Pakistan army at first refused to acknowledge these soldiers, and their burials and last rites were performed by the Indian Army.
If publicity is oxygen for terrorists, very little in the timing of their violence is a coincidence. Before the ambush in Doda, the terror attack in Kathua, Jammu, occurred on the day that Hizbul Mujahideen terrorist Burhan Wani was eliminated by our security forces in 2016. As the Kargil anniversary approaches, military veterans like Lt General Ata Hasnain are warning of “something big” that could be attempted by Pakistan to change the headlines and the mood in a week of commemorations.
There is, by all accounts, also enough intelligence that points to a direct participation of the Pakistan army. I don’t mean this just in the conventional sense of the Pakistan Deep State patronising Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar as security assets against India. Every single military veteran and police officer I have spoken to — some choosing to stay in the background, some on the record — believes that the guerilla operations in Jammu are the handiwork of highly-trained infantrymen or special forces soldiers.
In other words, the infiltrators inside Indian territory may not be only mercenaries with a gun for hire or ideologically indoctrinated terrorists; alongside them, the threat is evidently also from Pakistani soldiers, regulars of its army who have likely retired recently. Some veterans say it is not possible to rule out the involvement of serving Pakistan army personnel either. The operation bears their imprint in one or the other way.
So, what is the aim? I can think of a few. Move the centre of gravity of counter-insurgency operations to Jammu. Put pressure on the security grid — remember, the threat from China means that eastern Ladakh is also heavily militarised, in a way it was not some years ago. Now, there will be pressure to deploy more troops in Jammu’s mountains. Seek to overshadow a week of Kargil headlines. Challenge the political narrative around the abrogation of Article 370. The record turnouts in the Kashmir Valley in the Lok Sabha elections ran counter to every position Pakistan has taken traditionally. And, of course, to delay the assembly elections. But as Lt General Hasnain reminds us, in 2002, there were 1,650 incidents of terrorism and a watershed assembly election was still held. Anything else would be to play into the hands of the terrorists.
Can Pakistan, with its internal turmoil and bleeding economy, afford a bigger conflagration with India? Is China aiding and abetting this plan? And how may India respond? These are no longer hypothetical questions as we enter another phase of conflict in Jammu and Kashmir.
Barkha Dutt is an award-winning journalist and author. The views expressed are personal