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14% fall in Indian arrivals to Canada as temp residents in Jan-June since 2024
A report suggests Canada may exceed temporary resident arrival targets despite declines, raising questions on immigration management ahead.
While there has been a reduction in the number of temporary resident arrivals this year, the numbers may still exceed the targets of the Canadian government, a new report has argued.
The immigration report for October released by the Association for Canadian Studies said, “Both the International Mobility Program (IMP) and the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) are running ahead of projections, raising new questions about how Ottawa will manage temporary immigration in the months ahead.”
The report said that while the “broader target for all temporary resident arrivals” in 2025 was 673,650, including study permit holders and temporary workers, in effect, while there have been reductions to each of the categories they’re “not in line with the size of the projected cuts”.
“Cuts might be much greater in the second half of the year to better approximate the desired goal,” it added.
However, the trend is clear. Under IMP, the intake dropped from 410,825 in the first six months of 2024 to 302,280 in the corresponding period this year, a decrease of 26.4%. The government’s target for 2025 was 285,750. Under IMP, employers can hire foreign workers to meet labour needs that align with Canada’s interests, like those in technology. Indians saw a fall in numbers, from 109,125 in January-June 2024 to 94,010 over the same period this year, a drop of 14%.
For TFWP, the numbers declined from 109,310 to 105,195 or 3.8%. The overall target for 2025 was 82,000.
The clear fall came in the category for international students. New study permit holders fell from 245,055 to 149,860 for the six-month period, or 38.8%. Indians suffered a sharper decrease, from 99,950 to 47,695, or 52.3%.
The opposition Conservative Pary has called for the abolition of TFWP, but Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said last month that it still had a “role.”
“We can’t just erase this programme but we can definitely improve it,” he said.
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada or IRCC said it is “committed to returning immigration to sustainable levels, including reducing Canada’s temporary population to less than 5%.” It has said that the figures in its datasets were for new TFWP visas and also renewals and the former category only totalled 33,722 or 42% of the annual target.
The government will release its immigration level plan this month and, given the current sentiment, is likely to reduce newcomer numbers for the years ahead.
