Canada polls: Incumbent Carney, challenger Poilievre to face off in official debates

The French-language debate will be held on Wednesday evening. The English-language version will follow the day after, just a day before early voting begins in the country for the April 28 election

Toronto: With Canada’s Federal election 12 days away, the two official debates on Wednesday and Thursday will prove a crucial platform for Liberal Party leader Mark Carney and his principal rival, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney tours the factory floor before making an announcement during his Liberal Party election campaign tour at Nova Bus, in Saint-Eustache, Quebec. (REUTERS)

The French-language debate will be held on Wednesday evening. The English-language version will follow the day after, just a day before early voting begins in the country for the April 28 election.

While the ruling party remains in position to form a majority government, polls have tightened in recent days. And that will provide an opportunity to the Conservative in testing Carney on a public platform, over the two-hour long debates.

“Debates are widely anticipated as they represent the few times when leaders are unscripted. There’s always a level of expectation,” Shachi Kurl, president of the non-profit public polling agency Angus Reid Institute (ARI) said.

Kurl, who moderated the 2021 English-language debate, expected the exchanges to be “fairly buttoned up”.

She pointed out it has been over four decades since a debate performance may have mattered in the final outcome of the election. That was in 1984 when then Prime Minister John Turner appeared weak while responding to an attack by his Conservative rival Brian Mulroney. Mulroney ended up winning a majority.

Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre speaks during a federal election campaign stop in Montreal, on Tuesday. (AP)

Poilievre will be hoping to repeat that feat and provoke a gaffe from Carney. However, Kurl said the Conservative leader may well have been advised to “make your pint, don’t do anything so risky that it will have a profound impact”.

The debates will focus on the threat posed by the Administration of US President Donald Trump to Canada, the cost-of-living crisis, immigration, security and foreign affairs, among other topics.

The debates will take place as the poll aggregator 338 Canada predicted that the Liberals are well placed, and could garner 190 seats in the election, far higher than the majority mark of 172. The Conservatives are lagging at 124.

However, polls have become closer in recent days. The agency Mainstreet Research tracking poll showed the two main parties tied at 42% support each on Tuesday.

ARI has also detected that trend. Its survey, released on Monday, showed the Liberal lead softening to six points. For the Conservatives, it said, “these data represent the first glimmer of hope in several weeks, as their support ticks up ever so slightly”.

The dynamic driving this election is that other parties like the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois are polling below double digits, making it the first true two-party race in this century.