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Nobel Peace Prize organisers probe sudden surge in online bets favouring Maria Corina Machado
Polymarket lets investors to bet on yes-or-no questions about a range of topics, including politics, sports, geopolitics, pop culture and more.
The Nobel Peace Prize organisers have launched a probe into a potential leak of information after online bets on the recipient of the prize this year, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, surged overnight.
The bets in favour of Machado spiked a night before she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize 2025 surged on Polymarket, hours ahead of the prize announcement, according to the information available on its website, reported Bloomberg. Polymarket is the “world's largest prediction market,” according to its website.
“We take this very seriously…It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information,” Bloomberg quoted Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, as saying.
In response to the launch of the probe, Polymarket had a cheeky “whoops” reply on X.
How the bets surged
A trader with the username ‘dirtycup’ bet a whopping $70,000 on Machado just hours ahead of the winner announcement, making a profit of around $30,000 after she won, the Bloomberg report said citing the Polymarket’s data. What makes this particular bet eyebrow-raising is that the investor had opened its account only this month and had not bet on any other market before this.
Another investor, with the username ‘6741’ made a profit of over $50,000, reported the Wall Street Journal. This investor also began betting some 12 hours ahead of Machado’s win, when her chances of winning on the site were just about five per cent. However, ‘6741’ began placing long-shots bets on Machado, followed by some other users as well, which eventually drove Machado’s chances of winning on the website to around 70 per cent eventually.
Such whopping profits and bets placed hours ahead of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement have raised questions about a potential leak of information about the winner, prompting the probe by the organisers.
Polymarket lets investors to bet on yes-or-no questions about a range of topics, including politics, sports, geopolitics, pop culture and more.
