ermany’s Social Democrats and the conservatives are locked together in the national election exit polls, leaving the decision over Chancellor Angela Merkel’s successor hanging in the balance.
Officials from both parties said they hope to lead Germany’s next government and have their candidates succeed Merkel, who has been in power since 2005.
Olaf Scholz’s SPD, the front-runner over the final weeks of the campaign, had 25% of the votes, according to exit polls from broadcaster ARD on Sunday, which gave Merkel’s bloc -- led by Christian Democratic boss Armin Laschet -- the same result. A second poll by ZDF gave Scholz a narrow advantage of 26% to 24%.
If support remains neck-and-neck, neither Scholz nor Laschet have a clear path to the chancellorship, setting up a messy post-election scramble. The control of the chancellery would likely be determined by the battle to sign up coalition partners to forge a majority.
Nevertheless, the mood was upbeat at the SPD headquarters in Berlin and bleak at the CDU, where supporters were digesting the prospect of their worst ever election result.
The general secretary of the Social Democrats Lars Klingbeil said he believes his party has been given a “mandate” to form a ruling coalition.
{{/usCountry}}The general secretary of the Social Democrats Lars Klingbeil said he believes his party has been given a “mandate” to form a ruling coalition.
{{/usCountry}}In the CDU camp, several people covered their mouths in apparent disbelief when the exit polls were released. CDU general secretary Paul Ziemiak said after the publication of the ARD poll: “That hurts”.
Party secretary Paul Ziemiak tried to maintain morale, telling his members they are in for a long night and they shouldn’t give up yet. “With this result, there would be a chance for a coalition” with the Greens and the Free Democrats, he said.
“We cannot be satisfied with the results of the election,” Laschet told his supporters. “We will do everything possible to build a conservative-led government because Germans now need a future coalition that modernises our country.”
After 16 years under Merkel’s pragmatic centrist leadership, the outcome of the vote will have wide-ranging implications for Europe and the West. The exit polls could prove less reliable than in past years because of the large share of mail-in ballots. Counting will proceed into the night. The fragmented political landscape means three parties would be needed to secure a majority in the German parliament for the first time in decades.
The Greens, which are the SPD’s favoured partner, came in third with ARD projecting 15% -- their best ever results. The party is likely to play a kingmaking-role alongside the pro-business Free Democrats, which got 11% of the votes.
The anti-capitalist Left, on 5%, could also potentially play a role in a coalition with the SPD.
Whatever coalition formation ends up in power, Germany’s friends can at least take heart from an election campaign in which moderate centrism prevailed, and the populism that has taken hold in other European countries failed to break through. The far-right Alternative for Germany got 11% and will take a role in the opposition.
The deadlock underscores the uncertainty facing Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s industrial model is under threat as value shifts away from mechanical engineering, while the country’s exporters risk getting caught up in geopolitical tensions, especially between the US and China.
A new government will need to address the issues Merkel left behind, including aging infrastructure and a lack of investment in digital technologies. The most pressing issue is weaning its auto industry and its energy system off fossil fuels.
Merkel and her current government, including Scholz as finance minister and vice chancellor, will serve until a new regime is sworn in.