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UK Covid-19 death toll likely to be between 7,000 and 20,000: Epidemiologist

Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, whose modeling prompted the government to shift strategy from the controversial ‘herd immunity’ to lockdown and other measures, said it is not yet clear when restrictions could be eased.

Updated on: Apr 5, 2020, 22:42:31 IST
Hindustan Times, London | By
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A key epidemiologist advising the Boris Johnson government on Sunday reiterated expert modeling that the coronavirus death toll in the United Kingdom is likely to be between 7,000 and 20,000, as latest figures put the figure at 4,313.

A woman and man wearing protective masks walk in Burgess Park, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, London, Britain, April 5, 2020. (REUTERS)
A woman and man wearing protective masks walk in Burgess Park, as the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continues, London, Britain, April 5, 2020. (REUTERS)

Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, whose modeling prompted the government to shift strategy from the controversial ‘herd immunity’ to lockdown and other measures, said it is not yet clear when restrictions could be eased. UK hospitals are dealing with 41,093 cases.

A special message from Queen Elizabeth was due to be telecast to the UK and the Commonwealth at 8 pm UK time on Sunday (0030 of Monday India time).

Ferguson told BBC’s Andrew Marr Show: “There is no point, having gone through this effort, in releasing a lockdown at a point where case numbers are still high and will resurge even faster than we have seen before”.

“We want case numbers to get to a low point where we can start substituting other measures for the most intrusive and economically costly aspects of the current lockdown,” he said, adding that the death toll could be “anywhere between about 7,000 or so up to a little over 20,000”, he added.

“I hope in the years to come everyone will be able to take pride in how they responded to this challenge. And those who come after us will say that the Britons of this generation were as strong as any. That the attributes of self-discipline, of quiet good-humoured resolve and of fellow-feeling still characterise this country.”

Keir Starmer, the new Labour leader, told Sunday television that “serious mistakes” had been made by the Boris Johnson government while dealing with the pandemic, but had reached an arrangement to receive ministerial briefings and wanted to be constructive.

“But asking those difficult questions matters. You can see that when difficult questions were asked on testing things began to move. The same thing with equipment on the frontline; scrutiny is important here.”

 
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Prasun Sonwalkar

Prasun Sonwalkar was Editor (UK & Europe), Hindustan Times. During more than three decades, he held senior positions on the Desk, besides reporting from India’s north-east and other states, including a decade covering politics from New Delhi. He has been reporting from UK and Europe since 1999.

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