NASA's rare ‘emergency’ decision revealed as ‘city-killer’ asteroid’s chances of 2032 Earth collision just shot up

Here's how the world's space agencies are expected to deal with the ‘city-killer’ asteroid 2024 YR4's higher chance of hitting Earth in 2032.

The odds of a ‘city-killer’ asteroid estimated to be the same size as New York’s Statue of Liberty or London's Big Ben hitting the Earth recently went up, per astronomers’ prediction. The space rock, labelled 2024 YR4 that previously had a 1.2% chance of colliding with our home planet on December 22, 2032, now has a one-in-43 (2.3%) probability of turning an apocalyptic sci-fi scenario into a reality.

Asteroid 2024 YRF now has a 2.3% chance of hitting the Earth in 2032, surpassing "the 1% impact probability threshold to warrant formal notification of the object to other U.S. government agencies involved in planetary defense as well as to the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group and to the United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs per the International Asteroid Warning Network’s notification charter," per NASA.(Representational image)

As a result, the world's space agencies are acting accordingly. Ever since the Sentry list kept by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory updated 2024 YR4’s chance of hitting Earth, an international team of scientists has been allowed to use the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) to measure the estimated damage the asteroid has the potential to cause.

How big is the city-killer asteroid expected to hit Earth in 2032

Although the ‘city-destroying’ space rock is believed to measure about 40 and 90 metres (130 and 300 ft) in diameter, astronomers will use the “ largest, most powerful and most complex telescope ever launched into space” to measure the asteroid’ exact size. A spokesperson for the European Space Agency said, “2024 YR4 could be 40 m [130 feet] across and very reflective, or 90 m [295 feet] across and not very reflective,” per the Daily Mail.

ESA further added, “Astronomers around the world are using powerful telescopes to measure the asteroid’s orbit as accurately as possible. But knowing its orbit will only tell us the asteroid could impact Earth, not how significant an impact could be.

“It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4: the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid," ESA added.”

The JWST is expected to record two observations of the asteroid when it passes within Earth's visual range. So, the first observation could come in March when 2024 YR4 attains peak brightness. More observations will follow in May, as experts will have their last chance to see it before its return in 2028.

2024 YR4's ‘risk factor’ revealed

According to the International Asteroid Warning Network’s (IAWN) revelations about 2024 YR4 earlier this month, its “risk corridor” spans the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia, Forbes reported. IAWN stated that a potential clash with our planet would result in “severe blast damage” up to 31 miles (50 km) from the impact site.

Lethal aftermath of potential Earth collision

The JWST’s observations will aid in planning out planetary defence as organisations engage in determining whether the asteroid needs to be deflected. Given the current estimated size of the ‘city-killer’ asteroid, experts predict that 2024 YR4 could emanate the energy of 15 megatons of TNT upon potential Earth collision.

Although the asteroid is not expected to cause an extinction-level event, its destructive potential is 100 times more powerful than the nuclear bomb which annihilated Hiroshima, killing between 100,000 and 180,000 people. The NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile first spotted 2024 YR4 in late December last year.