Russian president Vladimir Putin might be setting a "trap" for Wagner fighters by presenting Belarus as a safe haven, a US-based thinktank said. The Russian president told members of the mercenary group that they have three options following their mutiny: serve Russia, retire or follow their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said the Kremlin will likely regard personnel who flee to the neighbouring country as traitors "whether or not it takes immediate action against them".
“Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. Putin's acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin's speech notwithstanding, is questionable,” the thinktank said in its latest update.
Read more: Wagner chief Prigozhin is in Minsk hotel without window: 'Assassination feared'
Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko previously turned over 33 detained Wagner fighters to Moscow in 2020.
"There is no apparent reason why he would not do so again," the ISW said.
{{/usCountry}}"There is no apparent reason why he would not do so again," the ISW said.
{{/usCountry}}This comes as Vladimir Putin said Russia averted “civil war” with a deal for Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to end his armed rebellion.
“You in fact prevented a civil war,” the Russian leader told 2,500 troops at a televised Kremlin ceremony, adding, “In a difficult situation you acted clearly and coherently.”
More than 276 billion rubles ($3.25 billion) went on salaries and insurance for Wagner forces in 2022 as well as on payments to its owner’s company for supplying food and catering for the army, he said, without mentioning Prigozhin by name.
“I hope that no one stole anything, or, let’s say, stole just a little in the course of this work. But we will of course look into all this," Vladimir Putin said.