The Union Budget 2025, the second full budget of Modi 3.0, will be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament at 11 am on Saturday, February 1, 2025, marking her eighth consecutive presentation of a Union Budget.
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All eyes will be on the much-expected income tax relief for the middle class.
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Key numbers to be watched
The following are the key numbers to watch out for in the Union Budget 2025, according to a report by news agency PTI:
- Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit or the difference between the government expenditure and income for the financial year 2024-25 is estimated to be 4.9% of the GDP and is to be brought down to 4.5% of the GDP in 2-25-26 as per the fiscal consolidation roadmap.
- Capital Expenditure: The government's planned capital expenditure is budgeted at ₹11.1 lakh crore. However, slower government spending in the first four months due to the Lok Sabha elections delayed the capex cycle and the final numbers for the current fiscal are expected to be lower than budgeted, according to the report.
- Debt Roadmap: The finance minister, in her 2024-25 budget speech, had stated that from 2026-27 onwards, the objective of fiscal policy would be to maintain the fiscal deficit in a way that the central government debt declines as a percentage of the GDP.
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- Borrowing: The government's gross borrowing Budget was ₹14.01 lakh crore in 2024-25 to fund its fiscal deficit. This borrowing number will be watched by the market, especially on the back of lower dividends from the RBI in FY26 compared to ₹2.11 lakh crore in FY25.
- Tax Revenue: The 2024-25 Budget had pegged gross tax revenue at ₹38.40 lakh crore, a 11.72% growth over 2023-24. This includes ₹22.07 lakh crore estimated to come from direct taxes (personal income tax corporate tax), and ₹16.33 lakh crore from indirect taxes (customs excise duty GST).
- GST: Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in 2024-25 is estimated to rise 11% to ₹10.62 lakh crore. 2025-26 GST revenue projections will be watched as the revenue growth has slowed over the last three months in the current fiscal.
- Nominal GDP: India's nominal GDP growth in 2024-25 is estimated to be 10.5%, while the Real GDP growth estimated by the NSO is 6.4%. 2025-26 nominal GDP growth projections in the Budget will give an idea about the inflation trajectory in the next fiscal.
- Dividend: The government estimated ₹2.33 lakh crore from the RBI and financial institutions and ₹56,260 crore from CPSEs as dividends in 2024-25. These two key non-tax revenue numbers is important in the new Budget's projections.
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- Borrowing: The government's gross borrowing Budget was ₹14.01 lakh crore in 2024-25 to fund its fiscal deficit. This borrowing number will be watched by the market, especially on the back of lower dividends from the RBI in FY26 compared to ₹2.11 lakh crore in FY25.
- Tax Revenue: The 2024-25 Budget had pegged gross tax revenue at ₹38.40 lakh crore, a 11.72% growth over 2023-24. This includes ₹22.07 lakh crore estimated to come from direct taxes (personal income tax corporate tax), and ₹16.33 lakh crore from indirect taxes (customs excise duty GST).
- GST: Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in 2024-25 is estimated to rise 11% to ₹10.62 lakh crore. 2025-26 GST revenue projections will be watched as the revenue growth has slowed over the last three months in the current fiscal.
- Nominal GDP: India's nominal GDP growth in 2024-25 is estimated to be 10.5%, while the Real GDP growth estimated by the NSO is 6.4%. 2025-26 nominal GDP growth projections in the Budget will give an idea about the inflation trajectory in the next fiscal.
- Dividend: The government estimated ₹2.33 lakh crore from the RBI and financial institutions and ₹56,260 crore from CPSEs as dividends in 2024-25. These two key non-tax revenue numbers is important in the new Budget's projections.
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- Disinvestment & Asset Monetisation: ‘Miscellaneous Capital Receipts,’ including proceeds from disinvestment and asset monetisation was pegged at ₹50,000 crore in the previous Budget. The 2025-26 Budget will give a number for next year and a broader asset monetisation roadmap.
- Apart from all of this, the spotlight will also be on how much the government would allocate for key schemes like the National Rural employment Guarantee Act (NREGA) as well as on important sectors like health and education.
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