Next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan

JPMorgan's Market Intelligence team said the reading "contributes additional evidence on the global recovery in manufacturing."

Updated on: Apr 4, 2024, 24:28:06 IST

By HT News Desk

Prefer HTon Google

Share via

Copy link

US recession may have just been delayed to 2025, as per a recent note from JPMorgan's trading desk that highlighted the strength seen in ISM manufacturing activity in March that jumped over 50 for the first time since September 2022 which represents an expansion in manufacturing activity. The data ended a 16-month decline in US factory activity amid a solid demand for goods which led to a sharp rebound.

The data ended a 16-month decline in US factory activity amid a solid demand for goods which led to a sharp rebound. (Bloomberg)

What note said on US recession?

JPMorgan's Ellen Wang and Andrew Tyler of the Market Intelligence team said the reading "contributes additional evidence on the global recovery in manufacturing."

Will there be a recession in US soon?

The economic data should “give more confidence that the US economy is recovering in additional sectors and recession fears for 2024 are likely to be pushed into 2025”, it noted. This means that if there was a potential recession it is pushed back to 2025 because of the solid manufacturing data.

Why US recession could be in 2025?

The note said, “This is not an issue for stocks where we continue to see Size/Quality types of names dominating sector performance as these companies continue to print strong earnings numbers in an elevated rates environment and did this in 2023 when much of the world was materially weaker than they are today.”

Read more: Apple iPhone, iPad and MacBook users may be at high risk: Details here

Solid labor supply should help mute wage inflation, which represents a major component of overall inflation, the note added. This comes after Fed's GDPNow estimate of 2.8% economic growth in the first quarter, elevated job openings, and low unemployment claims.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
HT News Desk
Follow the latest breaking news, major developments and agenda-setting stories from India and around the world with the newsdesk at Hindustan Times. Operating round the clock, the desk brings together experienced editors, reporters and correspondents to deliver fast, accurate and contextual reporting across subjects that influence public policy, governance, business, society and international affairs. The HT News Desk covers politics, elections, government policies, the economy, business and markets, science and technology, the environment, law and order, infrastructure, education, climate issues and geopolitics, while closely tracking developments across states, institutions and global capitals. The team also leads coverage of major breaking news events, policy announcements, court proceedings, natural disasters, public emergencies and significant international developments. Reports published by the newsdesk are based on information gathered from reporters on the ground, official statements, government agencies, court records, regulatory filings, recognised institutions and other authoritative sources. Stories undergo editorial scrutiny and verification processes to ensure accuracy, fairness and relevance, and are updated as events evolve and additional information becomes available. Whether covering a key political decision in New Delhi, an economic policy shift affecting millions, a landmark court ruling or a major global event, the HT News Desk aims to provide readers with reliable, fact-based journalism that delivers not only the latest developments but also the context and analysis needed to understand their wider implications.Read More

Stay updated with the latest Business News, stock market updates, petrol and diesel prices, gold and silver rates, income tax updates and major developments from India and across the world.