Barely 10 days after reaching Punjab on July 2, bringing much-needed relief from heat and helping narrow Punjab’s seasonal rainfall deficit, the southwest monsoon is set to lose momentum with subdued rainfall activity expected over the next six to seven days.
The latest forecast of India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the active monsoon phase over Punjab was coming to a halt as the monsoon trough shifts towards the Himalayan foothills. As the monsoon axis moves away from the plains, dry westerly winds are expected to dominate much of northwest and central India, driving up temperatures and humidity.
This change in the synoptic weather pattern is expected to suppress rainfall activity over Punjab, Haryana and Delhi, while enhancing rainfall over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and the northeastern states.
Dry week ahead
According to the IMD’s national weather bulletin, issued on Sunday, subdued rainfall activity is likely over the plains of northwest India during the next six to seven days, with Punjab expected to witness only isolated rainfall during the forecast period.
Weather experts also say there are no strong indications of a fresh low-pressure area moving inland from the Bay of Bengal before July 15, limiting the chances of revival of monsoon activity over Punjab in the immediate future.
{{/usCountry}}Weather experts also say there are no strong indications of a fresh low-pressure area moving inland from the Bay of Bengal before July 15, limiting the chances of revival of monsoon activity over Punjab in the immediate future.
{{/usCountry}}The break in monsoon is expected to push up day temperatures and increase humidity levels, resulting in sultry conditions across most parts of Punjab.
The dry spell could also have implications for the ongoing paddy transplantation season. While farmers have benefited from the recent rainfall, prolonged dry weather may once again increase dependence on canal irrigation and groundwater for transplanted paddy fields if significant rainfall does not return soon.
The monsoon lull follows an unusually dry June, when Punjab recorded just 29.5 mm rainfall against the normal 54.5 mm, a shortfall of 46.46%. Although an active monsoon spell during the past 10 days helped improve the seasonal rainfall position and narrow the deficiency to around 23%, the pause is likely to slow further recovery.