E-Paper
Uttar Pradesh’s second largest economy goal awaits reality check
The Uttar Pradesh government is already in the process of appointing a consultant to work out a roadmap to boost the size of GSDP to one trillion dollars in the next five years (2022-27)
The Uttar Pradesh government’s claim that the state is moving towards becoming the second largest economy in India will have to face the test of reality in the coming months.
“Uttar Pradesh has emerged as an able state (Samarth Pradesh) on the national horizon. Our state is now moving ahead to become the second largest economy of India,” chief minister Yogi Adityanath said while welcoming President Ram Nath Kovind to address the joint sitting of state legislature here on June 6.
Ahead of the 2022 assembly elections, the Uttar Pradesh government had claimed the state was already the second largest economy. The state government has apparently revised its position in view of GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product) estimates that indicate Uttar Pradesh is now the third largest economy after Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu. The Reserve Bank of India’s data (source: National Statistical Office, government of India) for 2019-20 indicates the state’s GSDP (at current prices) to be ₹16.87 lakh crore against Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu’s GSDP of ₹28.18 lakh crore and ₹17.97 lakh crore respectively.
The state government’s revised estimates for 2019-20 indicated the GSDP size to be ₹16.89 lakh crore. The state government revises its GSDP estimates upwards or downwards as a routine. It had relied on its revised projections for subsequent years to earlier claim the state was the second largest economy. Uttar Pradesh’s GSDP estimates for 2020-2021 were initially taken to be ₹17.91 lakh crore and then revised to ₹19.40 lakh crore. UP’s GSDP projections for 2021-2022 were ₹21.73 lakh crore. The Directorate of Economic and Statistics of the UP government, in its advance estimates, has indicated UP’s GSDP for 2021-2022 was about Rs. 19.10 lakh crore. The state government has also now revised its GSDP estimates for 2021-2022 to ₹17.49 crore. UP’s GSDP estimates for 2022-2023 have been now projected at ₹20.48 lakh crore.
An expert said other indicators of development needed to be focused on.
“As per the data given by the National Statistical Office, government of India, throughout the period 2011-12 to 2019-20 in terms of GSDP at current prices, relative ranks of states have been Maharashtra-1, Tamil Nadu-2 and U.P-3. For the year 2020-21, Tamil Nadu’s GSDP was given as Rs19.02 lakh cr and U.P.’s as ₹17.05 lakh cr. It is also observed that sometimes there is a difference between the estimates of GSDP given by the DES and finance department, GoUP (government of Uttar Pradesh). Boosting the size of GSDP should not be over emphasised. There are other indicators of development that need to be focused on. For example, in terms of per capita income, U.P.’s rank is second from the bottom above only Bihar,” said Professor Yashvir Tyagi, former head of the department, economics, Lucknow University.
The Uttar Pradesh government is already in the process of appointing a consultant to work out a roadmap to boost the size of GSDP to one trillion dollars in the next five years (2022-2027). The state government has received seven bids and the consultant to be will have to work to boost the GSDP nearly four times to achieve the objective of making Uttar Pradesh a trillion-dollar economy.
