Aspirations of Marathi manoos still with Uddhav while Shinde makes off with party flag

Observers said Narwekar’s verdict will change Maharashtra in two ways: First, it will deepen the BJP’s control over state politics, no mean feat for a party which, way back in the 1990s, rode piggy-back on the Sena to expand its electoral base

Though it will be challenged in court, Speaker Rahul Narwekar’s verdict on Wednesday ruling that the Shinde faction is the real Shiv Sena marks the end of the Bal Keshav Thackeray era in Maharashtra politics.

Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) workers protest against Maharashtra Assembly Speakers Rahul Narvekar over the his verdict on Shiv Sena MLA disqualification matter. outside Shiv Sena Bhavan, Dadar in Mumbai. India. Jan 10,2024. (Photo by Raju Shinde/HT Photo)

The only Mumbai politician to have enjoyed a mythic status, Balasaheb, in a career spanning over five decades, set the agenda of state politics. His annual Shivaji Park soliloquies, his wit and vitriol, his love for cartoons, cigar and controversies--all became added to Mumbai’s mythology.

And while his son Uddhav lacked Balasaheb’s charisma and spunk, he made good use of his organisational skills to keep the Shiv Sena going after the patriarch’s death. “Uddhav did fairly well as Balasaheb’s successor. He kept the Sena intact and led the party to victory in two elections,” said political analyst Bhanu Kale. But now he has a daunting task ahead of him. Apart from a preparing for a protracted legal battle, he needs to restore the morale of his party cadre and firm up the Sthaneeya Lokadhikar Samiti and the Bharatiya Kamgar Sena, the two flagship trade unions which provided organisational muscle to the party for over four decades.

At least two of his trusted colleagues in his whittled-down inner circle—Subhash Desai and Liladhar Dake—are past their prime and Uddhav will need to build a new team with more faces from Marathwada and Vidarbha. This will help dispel the popular impression that his inner circle is packed with Konkan-Mumbai leaders. Also, reports that the Marathi ‘takka’ (percentage) is fast dwindling in Mumbai has set off alarm bells at Matoshree.

“The Marathis need a healing touch. The sooner Thackeray realises this the better,” said Kale. Much depends on how skilfully Uddhav fuses his aspirations to be a big-ticket player at the national level with the imperatives of regional politics, he added

Observers said Narwekar’s verdict will change Maharashtra in two ways: First, it will deepen the BJP’s control over state politics, no mean feat for a party which, way back in the 1990s, rode piggy-back on the Sena to expand its electoral base.

Second, the Mumbaikar Marathi manoos may, for sheer survival, rally behind Uddhav Thackeray in a last-ditch attempt to keep the fractured Sena going, and also to revive Balasaheb’s legacy.

Fortunately for Thackeray, Sena’s grass root workers--especially from Mumbai--have not crossed over to CM Eknath Shinde in large numbers. A few may do so in the run up to the Mumbai civic elections however, some Shinde loyalists too may make a beeline to Thackeray’s Sena to seek party nomination. The Mumbai and Thane civic polls will thus be an acid test for Thackeray and Shinde as both covet the MMR region as their prized territory.

“Thackeray enjoys abundant support from the Marathi-speaking community.

Should the turmoil in the NCP deepen further, a sizeable section of that party’s workers may join Thackeray and the Muslims in Mumbai too may back him,” said political commentator Pratap Asbe before adding that despite all this Thackeray may find it pretty hard to contain the BJP’s Hindutva appeal.

But in all this, can Thackeray tap into Balasaheb’s legacy to revamp his faction? Answers vary. Former minister Divakar Raote, a true-blue Shiv Sainik, answers in the affirmative. The strong bond between Balasaheb and the Marathi ‘manoos’ will help Thackeray tide over the present crisis, he says. However, there are others who don’t share Raote’s optimism given Mumbai’s fast-mutating socio-economic character. Political strategist Vivek Surve said, “The struggle for existence is getting fiercer by the day, and there is no room for nostalgia or old loyalties. Marathis may back the winning horse.”. However, Surve was quick to add that with the BJP engineering a split in the Sena-NCP Mumbaikar need a robust Mumbai-centric organisation which they can call their own.

The well-oiled ‘shakha’ network will no doubt help Thackeray revamp the party, paucity of funds is one concern, and the other is Uddhav’s regal aloofness. The Shiv Sainiks, still loyal, want him to be more accessible to them and rely on their assessment of local politics rather than the version rustled up by his inner circle.

“People want the Sena, but it seems the Sena doesn’t want the people. Our key leaders are hopelessly cut off from the party rank and file. For instance, the ‘netas’ aren’t aware that the vegetarian-versus-non-vegetarian debate is assuming monstrous proportions in Mumbai’s underbelly and Marathis are being targeted by the mercantile community,” said a Shiv Sainik from Girgaum requesting he not be quoted.

Kale thinks personal health concerns from 2020-2022 may have compelled Thackeray to keep himself away from party workers. “This also explains why he projected Aaditya as his political heir, and offered him a berth in the Maha Vikas Aghadi government.” The haste may have backfired, say observers.

Also, many old-timers have begun to question Thackeray’s decision to junk the Hindutva agenda in 2019. “Sainiks couldn’t understand why on earth should the Sena break bread with the Congress, the party which Balasaheb tore into in almost every speech,” said Chavan. “Uddhavji’s stature would have gone up had he also declined the CMship,” added a party veteran.

Kale recalled that Balasaheb too had sparked confusion in the Sena by jettisoning the Marathi ‘manoos’ agenda in favour of Hindutva. As a result, some of his close colleagues such as Hemchandra Gupte and Dattaji Pradhan left him, he said.

Describing Thackeray’s decision to team up with the Congress-NCP as a “politically correct move”, Asbe said, “Uddhav Thackeray began his stride on national centre stage, sharing limelight with the likes of Nitish Kumar, Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal.”

The point on which the Shiv Sainks speak in one voice is Matoshree’s failure to pre-empt the Eknath Shinde-sponsored revolt in 2022. “The Sena has always ignored its rebels--whether Chhagan Bhujbal, Raj Thackeray or Narayan Rane. Matoshree thought Shinde too would quit in his personal capacity,” said Asbe.

By the time Thackeray realised the magnitude of the crisis, Shinde, a school drop-out and a man of native wisdom, had, in one fell swoop, appropriated the party’s flag, nomenclature, the poll symbol--and a large chunk of party legislators. Shinde may well purr over his victory. However, it is doubtful if he can create a distinct identity for the party which Speaker Narwekar gifted him on a silver platter on Wednesday. “The CM will have to toe the BJP line,” said a former bureaucrat. The blurring of the distinction between the BJP and the Shiv Sena under Shinde is near-complete.