Mumbai will decide the outcome of Sena-vs-Sena fight

The BMC has been run by an administrator since the end of the elected body's tenure in February 2020, but activities suggest the civic polls could be coming.

For over a year now, the BMC has been functioning without any elected representatives. The tenure of the elected body ended last February, and since then it is being run by an administrator who reports to the state government and is not subject to any kind of scrutiny. Mumbaikars don’t harbour any great hope about the civic representatives they elect, but they know that the latter will at least keep an eye on the way the city is being run.

Shiv Sena UBT chief Uddhav Thackeray during a celebration of the 57th anniversary of Shiv Sena at Sanmukthanand Hall, in Mumbai on Monday. (ANI)

But while there is no official word on when the civic polls will be held, a sudden spurt in activities indicates that they could be round the corner. On Monday, chief minister Eknath Shinde appointed a special investigation team under Mumbai police chief Vivek Phansalkar to probe alleged irregularities of ₹12,000 crore in the BMC. These purported irregularities took place during the Covid pandemic, when the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena was in power in the BMC, and this appears to be at the root of the Shinde-Fadnavis government’s act.

While Thackeray reacted to this with a plan to take out a morcha to highlight alleged corruption during the administrator’s rule, Wednesday saw a further onslaught in the form of Enforcement Directorate raids on the residences of Suraj Chavan, an associate of Aaditya Thackeray, and Sujit Patkar, a friend of Sanjay Raut. It will be a long legal process before the duo is declared guilty or innocent, but the Thackeray faction could be worried about the negative perception that their regime in BMC was corrupt.

These incidents are the latest in a series of developments related to Mumbai—right from prime minister Narendra Modi’s Mumbai rally to garner votes for the BJP to chief minister Shinde’s visits to infrastructure project sites and monsoon preparedness works in the city. The ruling parties’ target is clear: power in the BMC, which has been a source of strength and influence for the Shiv Sena for almost three decades.

For Thackeray, Mumbai is vital. It is the only region where most Shiv Sena MLAs have remained with him: of the 16 loyalists, nine come from Mumbai. In the 2019 elections, the Shiv Sena won 14 seats in Mumbai. Nine of these MLAs have stayed with Thackeray while five defected to the Shinde-led Sena. Over 80 ex-corporators in the BMC are still with Thackeray while 12 have joined Shinde. A big chunk of the Shiv Sena city cadres has also remained loyal to Thackeray.

Considering these figures, the Thackeray-led Sena is a strong political entity in Mumbai. This could change if the Shinde Sena and BJP win the BMC. On the other hand, Thackeray could bounce back in the state if his party manages to return to power in the civic body.

This explains why the Mumbai civic polls are so important and will be fought intensely. Mumbai will decide the outcome of the Shinde-versus-Thackeray battle.