Maharashtra polls: How small parties can shape the big picture this election
In Maharashtra elections, smaller parties may influence outcomes by splitting votes, despite low chances of winning significant seats
MUMBAI: ‘Small’ may turn out to be bigger than expected in these elections, where more than 15 parties are contesting with almost no hope of clinching major victories. While their presence in the fray is often driven by motives such as a chance to bolster regional pride, or to just keep their party’s name alive on the ballot, a closer look at the numbers suggests there could be something more powerful at play. Political analysts say these parties could, wittingly or unwittingly, shape the narrative of the elections through their ability to split the votes in many constituencies.
Four parties, which have a minimal presence across the state, are contesting more than 100 seats of a total 288, while others are contesting 40 seats or less. Their candidates may or may not win but they will almost certainly shrink the victory margin in their respective constituencies, turning these contests into cut-throat battles. In a closely fought election, their role could prove crucial in the final tally.
Denying any ulterior motive, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Uttan Shevde said their priority is to gain recognition as a state-level party. To achieve this goal, they would have to secure at least 6% of the total valid votes polled in the state, and win at least two seats, among other criteria. “Even though we are contesting 239 seats, we are focusing on 25 seats, which we are hoping to win,” Shevde said.
Parties whose presence is particularly limited are the Azad Samaj Party (ASP), which is contesting 40 seats; the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) 16 seats; and the Hitendra Thakur-led Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) six seats.
Some of these outfits are a part of major alliances such as the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) but are also contesting a few seats as friendly fights. For instance, the Samajwadi Party (SP) is contesting two seats as an MVA partner and seven on its own. The Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) is also part of the MVA coalition and is contesting one seat as an ally and two other seats as friendly fights. Similarly, the Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWP) is contesting one seat as an MVA ally and five other seats in friendly fights.
For some of these smaller parties, the motive is nothing short of lofty. Raju Shetti, who heads the Swabhimani Paksha, is a popular farmer leader, whose party is contesting as an ally of the Parivartan Mahashakti, a third front comprising eight political outfits contesting 111 seats. The front is primarily led by three parties – Swabhimani Paksha, Prahar Janshakti Party and Maharashtra Swarajya Paksh. “We want to bring in new blood, a fresh breed of politicians with a clean image and no baggage, to work towards the betterment of Maharashtra,” Shetti told Hindustan Times.
It’s a little more complicated for the Maharashtra Swarajya Paksh. Led by Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati, the party’s presence is likely to fragment the crucial Maratha vote, linked to the hugely contentious issue of reservations for the Maratha community. The issue could significantly influence the outcome of these elections.
For Imtiyaz Jaleel, who heads the AIMIM, some battles are more personal than others. The AIMIM and the VBA have each fielded a candidate in the Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar constituency in Mumbai. The contest here is essentially between Samajwadi Party chief Abu Asim Azmi, a three-time MLA, and NCP candidate and former minister Nawab Malik. This is a Muslim-dominated seat the presence of the AIMIM candidate will further divide the votes, making this a tough contest. Jaleel said, “We had a sort of understanding with Abu Asim Azmi that we would not field candidates against each other. But he chose to field one against me, and so I decided to field my candidate against his.”
Prakash Ambedkar, who heads the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), is focusing on consolidating the OBC community, which is opposing Maratha leader Manoj Jarange-Patil’s demand for reservations from the OBC quota. However, the VBA’s performance in the 2019 elections was underwhelming, failing to win a single seat. And, yet, in the Lok Sabha elections that year, the VBA played an instrumental role in defeating Congress and NCP candidates in at least eight seats.
Weighing the Odds
* Number of smaller parties contesting over 100 seats each: 4
- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati: 239 seats
- Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) led by Prakash Ambedkar: 199 seats
- Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) led by Raj Thackeray: 135 seats
- Rashtriya Samaj Paksha led by Mahadev Jankar: 119 seats
* Seats won in the 2019 state polls:
- 3 seats: Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA): 3 MLAs
- 2 seats: Samajwadi Party, AIMIM, Prahar Janshakti Party
- 1 seat: MNS, PWP, CPI (M), RSP