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Is a laptop import ban feasible?

Nov 29, 2024 06:39 PM IST

Announcing a policy is the easy part. Execution is where things usually fall apart. The laptop move is bold, even risky. But it’s also necessary

Mumbai: In the 1990s, there was a popular joke about how free trade worked: America preached it, but when a competitor showed up, they slapped tariffs faster than you could say “globalization.” It wasn’t entirely untrue. America, the self-anointed guardian of open markets, has taken this a step further. It’s raising trade barriers and pouring billions into reshoring industries, all to stay ahead in the technology race. With Donald Trump back in the saddle and slogans such his ‘Make America Great Again’, the country is willing to slap sanctions on pretty much everyone who appears like a threat. On its part, China, didn’t even bother with the pretence. It built walled gardens to protect sensitive industries and became the factory of the world.

India is considering a ban on imports of laptops, personal computers and mobile phones after January. (AFP)
India is considering a ban on imports of laptops, personal computers and mobile phones after January. (AFP)

Meanwhile, India, for all its ambition, has played the game with its doors wide open, letting the world in without building much to call its own. Now, India wants to hit pause—or at least, that’s what it sounds like if one were to go by what Piyush Goyal, minister of industry and commerce said earlier this week: India is considering a ban on imports of laptops, personal computers and mobile phones after January. It’s a move that was discussed last month as well—but was shelved after critics yelled “protectionism” and fretted about higher costs for consumers. But let’s flip the argument for a moment. Could this be a smart move?

Manoj Menon, founder at the Singapore-based research and consulting firm Twimbit has studied technology markets world over. He thinks it makes sense. China didn’t become the tech hub it is today by accident. “They built walls to protect their industries until those industries were strong enough to take on the world,” he says. “What’s the problem with India erecting walls?” he asks

He’s got a point. Technology isn’t just another consumer product; it’s the backbone of modern life. Your laptop isn’t just a gadget; it’s the gateway to education, work, and governance. Depending on imports for something so fundamental is like building a house with no foundation. One shove—a geopolitical crisis, a supply chain choke, or a policy change—and the entire structure collapses.

So, yes, the government might be right to say it’s time to build domestic capacity. The real question isn’t why we should do this—it’s how.

And this is where things begin to get tricky. We’re already in December. January isn’t just around the corner; it’s knocking on the door. Can we really start making world-class laptops overnight? Spoiler: we can’t. Setting up a robust manufacturing ecosystem takes years. China didn’t become the tech hub it is today by slapping on a few policies. It spent decades investing in infrastructure, training its workforce, and nurturing industries with a mix of carrots (subsidies, tax breaks) and sticks (strict regulations). If India wants to pull this off, it needs a clear roadmap, not just a deadline--that sounds more like rhetoric.

Even if we start assembling laptops locally, the critical components—semiconductors, batteries, display panels—will still come from abroad. So while the sticker might say “Made in India,” the reality is more complicated. The broader question, then, isn’t just about manufacturing laptops but creating an ecosystem where every part of the supply chain—from components to finished products—is underpinned by local capabilities. That’s a much bigger beast to tackle.

And then there are the second-order outcomes. Restricting imports could make laptops more expensive in the short term. Students, startups, and small businesses—those who rely on affordable tech—might feel the pinch. Dell, one of the largest players in the Indian laptop market, declined to comment on how the proposed move might impact them or their customers. But if the government plays this right, higher demand for local manufacturing could eventually drive down costs and spur innovation.

Almost every sector that has succeeded in India—automobiles, mobile phones, even pharmaceuticals—started with some level of protection before finding its feet. The pain is real, but the potential payoff could be worth it.

But let’s not kid ourselves. Announcing a policy is the easy part. Execution is where things usually fall apart. The laptop move is bold, even risky. But it’s also necessary. Dreams like this don’t come cheap or easy. They require vision, execution, and a whole lot of persistence. For now, though, the clock is ticking, and the stakes are high.

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