E-Paper
Maharashtra may see nearly 100,000 cases a day during the third wave peak
Maharashtra on Monday recorded 12,160 fresh Covid-19 cases taking the tally of active cases in the state to 6,712,028
Mumbai: Maharashtra on Monday recorded 12,160 fresh Covid-19 cases taking the tally of active cases in the state to 6,712,028, even as the state health department’s internal projections — prepared based on inputs by the state Covid-19 task force and projections from the Central government to help governments ensure that preparations do not fall short — indicate that daily cases may go up to 100,000 cases at the peak of the third wave anticipated in February. In such a scenario, the tally of active cases may also go up in the peak.
Dr Pradeep Vyas, additional chief secretary for health said that going by projections prepared by the state health department, by the third week of January, active cases may reach up to 200,000 and breach 300,000 by the first week of February.
Though Vyas said that it would be too early to say definitively that the daily caseload would reach 100,000 in the peak, as cases are rising only in some districts and not in the entire state, he said that active cases are likely to cross 200,000 by the third week and 300,000 by the first week of February.
“We are likely to cross two lakh (0.2 million) active cases by the third week of this month and by the first of February the active cases are likely to cross three lakh (0.3 million) in the state. But we can’t say one lakh (0.1 million) will be reported during the peak as it is too early to predict because only Mumbai, Thane, Pune and Nagpur are showing an increase in cases but other districts are silent. It will also create unnecessary panic,” Vyas said.
At present, Maharashtra has 52,422 active cases (including Monday’s figures) and going by the projections, over 100,000 active cases will be added to the tally in the next two weeks.
Maharashtra was hit by the second wave in February 2021 and experienced a peak two months later. In the second wave, the highest one-day tally was 68,631 cases reported on April 18, and highest tally of active cases went up to 699,858 reported on April 22.
The additional chief secretary said that around 20% of the active cases are admitted in hospitals and among them over 69% are asymptomatic. “Till yesterday of the 7,500 cases admitted in various hospitals across the state, over 69% are asymptomatic, close to 20% are on oxygen support and close to 11% are critical. We are hoping that the trend will remain the same and even if more people require hospitalization we are prepared for it,” Vyas said.
The state also reported 68 cases of the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) on Monday. Of them, 40 are from Mumbai, 17 from Pune, four from Nagpur, three from Panvel, and one each from Navi Mumbai, Raigad, Satara and Kolhapur. The total number of Omicron cases recorded in the state now stand at 578. So far, 259 cases have been discharged following a negative RT-PCR test.
“Omicron is much more transmissible than Delta. In eight days, it has crossed 12,000 daily cases from around 1,500 cases which shows it spread much faster than the old variants and thus by the third week, the state will have over 0.15 million active cases. By February, a peak in daily cases will start which will go up to one million cases a day,” said a senior official, requesting anonymity.
He said that the projections are based on mathematical models which can succeed only if there is a rise in cases. “We cannot get the mathematical model of the entire state because of no rise in many of the districts. It can succeed only once it starts increasing,” Vyas explained.
State health experts also believe that the rise in cases would be exponential as the doubling of cases is between 1.5 to three days, which means that the daily tally of 11,000 cases would go up to 22,000 within three days.
Dr Shashank Joshi, a member of the state task force said, “My own prediction is that a peak will start in Mumbai by January 15 while for the state, it will come between January 15 and February 15. But the rate of rise would be exponential because the doubling rate is between 1.5 to three days.”
Since December 27, the state has recorded a rise of 41,981 active cases, from 10,441 to the current 52,422 cases.
Joshi said that the third wave will be predominantly by Omicron as it has already replaced 90% of Delta variant cases in the state, thus the number of patients who require hospitalization is very low at the moment. “The bed occupancy is very less as more than 90% beds are vacant. Hardly any Omicron infected patient needs oxygen and ventilator patients are also extremely few. Most of them who are on ventilators were infected by the Delta variant. We are hoping hospitals should not be overwhelmed by a large number of patients,” he said.
Since the outbreak of Omicron variant, the state has seen a surge of cases, prompting state health officials to declare that we are likely in the midst of a third wave. The state has imposed fresh restrictions to control the situation. It has restricted the number of people who can attend weddings, social, political and religious gatherings to 50 irrespective of venue. The number of people attending funerals has been restricted to 20.
State health minister Rajesh Tope on Monday said that they will have to impose a lockdown if bed occupancy reaches 40% and daily consumption of oxygen touches 700 metric tonnes.
“We have determined a norm for lockdown for Maharashtra, according to which if bed occupancy reaches 40% and daily consumption of oxygen goes up to 700 MT then lockdown will be imposed,” the health minister said.
At present, the bed occupancy in the state is around 20%.
The total number of beds in the state is now 1,052,184, according to the state health department. Since March 2020, the number of Covid-19 hospitals have increased to 6,451 from 214 while the isolation beds have been increased to 439,733 from 11,380 beds; ICU beds now stand at 38,870 and there are 15,582 ventilator beds.
The state recorded 11 deaths on Monday, taking the tally to 41,553. Over 6,514,358 people have recovered -- 1,748 on Monday -- while 69,370,095 tests have been conducted in all, including 110,477 on Monday.
The state administered 721,042 doses on Monday bringing the total doses administered to 134,805,871 till date, according to data on the Co-Win portal.
