After SC verdict: Sighs of relief, renewed plans for fight

The Supreme Court verdict on the Shiv Sena split and disqualification of 16 MLAs has resulted in relief, uncertainty, and preparations for battle. The NCP seems to be benefiting, while a coup like Shinde's is now difficult. The Thackeray camp is working on a legal strategy while the Shinde camp is relieved and confident of Narwekar ruling in their favor. There is a public spat between Andhare and Ajit, and several leaders of the three-party coalition have been passing remarks against each other, which is music to the ears of BJP leaders in the state.

Following the Supreme Court verdict on petitions related to the split in Shiv Sena and disqualification of its 16 MLAs, the mood in the political camps vary from relief to uncertainty to preparations for the battle ahead.

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Uddhav Thackeray and his party may not have got what they wanted but for their ally the NCP, the verdict seems to be good news. While the constitution bench did not accept the plea for status quo ante and refused to restore Uddhav as the chief minister, what it said in the order makes another Shinde type coup difficult.

The court has said the legislative unit cannot detach itself from the political party and take decisions itself. Political parties can make key appointments of legislative units. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has been told that mere numbers in legislative party can’t be the the sole criteria to decide who would get control of the party. It also said that a governor should not get involved in internal party tussles. All put together, those who want to do a Shinde-style operation — a group of legislators (two third of party strength or more) breaking away from the party, claiming to be original party and even staking claim on name of election symbol with the ECI — could face legal hurdles following the SC verdict.

For the past few months, the NCP leadership was wary of a split as several senior leaders were advocating joining hands with the BJP. Some of its leaders also believed that there could be an attempt to hijack the party just the way Shinde did it with Shiv Sena. The chances of such a coup are much less now.

Further, with Shinde surviving, there is no immediate change in chief minister. Had he resigned, the BJP would have had to pick a new chief minister. There were speculations that Ajit Pawar would have been one of the probables. However, two events — resignation episode of the NCP chief Sharad Pawar and the SC verdict — may have queered the pitch for Ajit. Party leaders close to Pawar senior have heaved a sigh of relief.

The Thackeray camp was not expecting that their government would be restored but the expectations from the verdict were a bit higher than what was delivered. The camp has now begun working on the legal strategy ahead with Aaditya Thackeray in New Delhi over the weekend to consult their legal advisors. Party leaders, who have been working on their legal strategy, think the assembly Speaker Rahul Narwekar has no option but to give judgement in three months after which they would have to approach the Supreme Court since they are not hopeful about the disqualification of Shinde and Co.

On the other hand, a strategy is being readied to reclaim the party name and symbol as the hearing on the petition of the Thackeray faction challenging the ECI decision to hand over the same to Shinde, expected to start after the summer break of the court.

In the rival Shinde camp, there is a huge sigh of relief though there are concerns over the long-term future of the group. It was chief minister Shinde, who was telling his party colleagues that the government would not go, and he would continue in the chair. Now that it has happened, the camp would love to see the disqualification proceedings lingering on for several months. They are also confident that Narwekar will rule in their favour following which the Thackeray faction will challenge it in the apex court. All put together, buying time for the next 15-16 months should not be a problem, they think.

Post the SC verdict, things are getting intense. And with Karnataka election results giving a new hope to the opposition camp, the political battle in Maharashtra is heating up.

The duel between Thackeray faction’s blazing gun and Ajit Pawar

Sushma Andhare, a Thackeray faction leader who is popular for her fiery oratory, broke down at a function in Satara on Tuesday where she was felicitated by Pawar. Andhare, during her speech, could not control her emotions as she narrated her ordeal saying she was targetted by the ruling party legislators.

She sought Pawar’s attention to the fact that the opposition leader (Ajit) did not raise the issue in the assembly. Her remarks sparked a public spat with Ajit advising her to take up the matter with her party colleague, Ambadas Danve, who is the opposition leader in the legislative council. He also advised her to complain to Uddhav Thackeray since Danve belongs to their party. Andhare hit back saying that Ajit was a senior MVA leader and as such she thought it was her right to expect him to raise voice for her.

Rumblings in the MVA

It is not just Andhare versus Ajit, but Several leaders of the three-party coalition have been passing remarks against each other.

Already Sanjay Raut has been involved in spats with Ajit and state Congress chief Nana Patole. Both Uddhav and Patole reacted bitterly to Pawar’s observations in his recently released book. Pawar has written that Uddhav lacked political acumen. He has also slammed former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan. Raut then remarked in Saamna that Pawar failed to choose a successor.

The public show of differences in the MVA is music to the ears of the BJP leaders in the state. With the public spats of the MVA leaders becoming too common, Pawar—in a meeting of MVA convened by him on Sunday — advised coalition leaders to work together, especially in the wake of Karnataka results.