Even though experts were fearful of an early third wave of pandemic, Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a 31% drop in Covid-19 cases and 45% decrease in monthly deaths in August as compared to July.
The overall test positivity rate (TPR) – the percentage of tests that turn out to be positive out of the total tests conducted during the period – has also shown a decline while settling at 0.23% in August from July’s 0.32 %. August, however, also saw a 6% decline in average daily tests with 53,359 persons tested daily as against 56,719 in July.
The union territory reported 3,957 infections and 30 deaths in August while in July, it saw 5,800 cases and 55 deaths. In June, the UT had seen 25,197 cases and 416 deaths.
Last month, experts had warned that the cases may see a substantial rise by the third week of August as restrictions had been lifted and people were hardly wearing masks.
Prof Dr Mohammad Salim Khan, head of the department of community medicine at Government Medical College, Srinagar, and nodal officer, Covid, said that the situation seems fine as of now. “The current trend is not that scary. Vaccination has certainly augmented our immunities, though not that profoundly. There may be a slight rise but it will be unlike (the intensity of) the second wave,” he said.
{{/usCountry}}Prof Dr Mohammad Salim Khan, head of the department of community medicine at Government Medical College, Srinagar, and nodal officer, Covid, said that the situation seems fine as of now. “The current trend is not that scary. Vaccination has certainly augmented our immunities, though not that profoundly. There may be a slight rise but it will be unlike (the intensity of) the second wave,” he said.
{{/usCountry}}There was a slight increase in TPR in the last-third of August, climbing to 0.26 % for the period of August 21-31 after recording 0.22% in the first-third (August 1-10) and 0.23% in the second-third (August 11-20).
However, Srinagar saw an increase in active cases in the past week. From 293 active cases on August 24, the capital has 528 active cases on August 31. “Srinagar is showing an upward trend in cases. That should not happen as it is the capital city and may affect other places as well. That is a cause of concern,” said Khan.
In June, the TPR in the UT was recorded at 1.80%. In May, when the second Covid-19 wave peaked, the TPR was 8.77% with the month recording 1.14 lakh cases and 1,625 deaths.
The UT conducted 16.54 lakh tests in August as against 17.58 lakh tests in July – a decline of around 6%. In June, 13.93 lakh tests were performed.
Dr Owais H Dar, general secretary of Doctors Association of Kashmir, said that August was a fluctuating phase for J&K. “Nobody can say exactly when the third wave will hit. It is more likely that the cases may rise again after September 15 but this time, we are better prepared,” he said.
He said that the intensity of the third wave may not be as severe as the second wave.
“Our preparations for the third wave are good. We are better vaccinated. Oxygen plants have also been augmented. And schools are yet to be opened,” he said.