Low depression over Arabian Sea likely to intensify into cyclonic storm by May 16: IMD

PUNE As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low depression over the Arabian Sea is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by May 16

PUNE As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a low depression over the Arabian Sea is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm by May 16.

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One of the factors for the increase in cyclone intensity and frequency is warmer sea surface temperature (SST), said IMD scientists.

Studies have also highlighted that pre-monsoon cyclones in the Arabian Sea are increasing.

Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, said that normally the frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is one every year.

“However, for this cyclogenesis, it is very early to say what path the cyclone will take and what the intensity will be. We have issued an early warning so that fishermen can be cautioned from venturing out to sea from May 14. IMD will be issuing updated forecasts of the same, from time to time,” said Dr Mohapatra.

Vineet Kumar Singh, a scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), who has published a paper on warmer sea surface temperatures (SST) and subsurface temperatures being responsible for the rapid intensification of cyclones that India has witnessed in the recent past, said that we can expect the Arabian Sea to witness more cyclones each year.

“The intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea is also rapidly increasing due to warmer sea surface temperature. In 2020, we witnessed the Nisarga Cyclone, which was a category 1 cyclone. Though it is early to predict the path of this upcoming cyclone, the weather department has issued a warning to inform fishermen not to venture out to sea,” said Singh.

He added that based on various national and international models, there is a possibility that this cyclone will be more intense than Cyclone Nisarga.

“However, the intensity of the cyclone can be predicted only in the next few days, as the conditions get clearer. Due to the rotation axis of the earth, many cyclones in Arabian Sea take a path towards Yemen and Oman,” said Singh.

He added that in 2007, Cyclone Gonu which was developed in the pre-monsoon Arabian Sea was a category 3 cyclone and had a wind speed of about 180-200km per hour.

“It is the Arabian sea where an increase in intensity of cyclones is observed,” said Singh.

Another study by Researchers at University of Virginia, USA, published in the journal Nature in 2011 states that there is an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea during the period 1979–2010. The study shows that the change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions.

Cyclone watch

* A low pressure area is likely to form over southeast Arabian Sea around May 14

* Likely to move north-north-westwards across southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Lakshadweep area and intensify into a depression around May 15.

* It may intensify into a cyclonic storm over east central Arabian Sea around May 16 and continue to move north north-westward.