Second Covid wave could be severe, warn experts

PUNE As Pune continues to report as many new Covid cases as it did during the first wave, city experts say that the ongoing wave could be more severe than the first one

PUNE As Pune continues to report as many new Covid cases as it did during the first wave, city experts say that the ongoing wave could be more severe than the first one. City experts have opined that with no restrictions in place, those who were protected during the first wave are now exposed to the Sars-Cov-2 virus which causes the Covid infection.

HT Image

State officials have also said that the new variant which is possibly milder is also more infectious as there is rapid spread.

Dr Raman Gangakhedkar, former head scientist of the Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases Division at the Indian Council of Medical Research, said, “It could be harsher given that we are reporting more cases than the first wave peak. People should understand this only by adopting Covid-appropriate behaviour that the cases could be curbed.”

“As of now, there is evidence that the spread could be blamed on the variant of the virus. With the vaccine in place, people have let down their guard. The vaccine does not treat the infection as of now it is only proven that the spread and also that the severity could be reduced post-vaccination. Some people who have got the first dose can be seen completely ignoring the safety norms which is not right,” he said.

While during November and December when the number of cases was coming down the Pune administration hoped that the ‘second wave’ would be milder owing to the ‘herd immunity factor’ Dr Gangakhedkar said, “People have been using the herd immunity factor as per their convenience. Now we see variants so there the herd immunity is not going to protect you. People need to follow Covid appropriate behaviour for at least a year.”

Dr Shashank Joshi, state Covid task force member, said, “We have found at least 400 variants in the country we do not know which is from where. They could be foreign or even developed domestically. With the rise in cases, all we could conclude is that the spread of the infection is faster, but the death rate has gone down and so this variant is leading to more cases but is not as deadly as the previous ones.

Dr Ghose Aurnab, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (ISSER), who was part of the team which did the first and only serological survey in the city, said, “We took the samples for the serosurvey during the lockdown period and so there was not much intermingling of people which restricted the spread of the virus. During the survey, we did find high levels of antibodies in the samples we tested. The ongoing rise could be partly reinfections or mutations, however, there is no proof of it. But it largely appears that in the current wave those who remained safe or protected during the first wave are now being affected.”

“The reason is that we see that most cases are now coming from areas which were earlier reporting the least number of cases. There is a large population of untouched people and the virus will always find a place to intrude into places that were left out. Also, now that people have completely left off their guard we are seeing an exponential rise in the number of cases,” he said.

Dr Ghose also said that currently the city is already at par with the September peak and if we continue to go higher the second wave will be worse or if we report lower than we are already at par with the first wave. However, Dr Joshi said it would be too premature to claim if this wave is harsher or not and that a conclusion could be drawn only after 15 days.