Bihar caste survey report: Experts see a Mandal replay
The finding that castes in the “reserved” category constitute 84.48% of Bihar’s population, for whom the quota in government jobs is capped at 50%.
It’s too early to tell how findings of much-awaited caste survey in Bihar, which revealed that OBCs and EBCs constitute a whopping 63 per cent of the state’s total population, will impact the general elections due next year or the assembly elections in the state due in 2025, but it’s certainly opened the proverbial Pandora’s box.
As per the findings, the “unreserved” category, which denotes the “upper castes” who dominated the state politics till the Mandal wave of 1990s, comprise only 15.52 per cent of the total population, estimated at a little over 13.07 crore.
The rest are other backward classes (27.12%), extremely backward classes (36.01%), scheduled castes (19.65%) and scheduled tribes (1.68%).
It’s also difficult to tell how the numbers have changed since 1931, when the last caste census was conducted by the erstwhile British rulers, because back then, Bihar (also consisting the present-day Jharkhand) and Orissa formed one province.
Still, the finding that castes in the “reserved” category constitute 84.48% of Bihar’s population, for whom the quota in government jobs is capped at 50% by the Supreme Court, is bound to have far-reaching ramifications in the state politics and beyond, according to analysts.
“The real motive is to reignite caste politics. Figures will be used to pursue Mandal politics. And if so, it is advantage Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar,” says N K Chowdhary, formerly head of economics department at Patna University. “The political perception is that RSS and BJP are dominated by upper castes.”
D M Diwakar, former director of A N Sinha Institute for Social Studies in Patna, is of the view that castes whose numbers have come out for the first time will definitely demand greater representation, making life difficult for all parties. “Political aspirations of all these castes will increase. Even among Muslims, who constitute 17.70% of Bihar’s population, there are sub-groups whose numbers have increased. They will demand their pie as well,” he says.
According to Diwakar, RJD and JD(U) have a strong base among Muslim, Yadav, OBC and EBC voters, which is deadly numbers.
Gyanendra Yadav, associate professor of sociology at College of Commerce in Patna, is of the view that the findings could help chief minister Nitish Kumar remain in the reckoning for power much longer.
“The findings will definitely pay rich dividends to parties engaged in caste identity politics, like Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Janata Dal United. It will help consolidate political support of various caste groups, especially marginalised groups. A decisive role will be played by EBCs, a constituency well nourished by Nitish Kumar since 2005,” he says.
While the next move by CM Nitish Kumar is keenly anticipated, there are sure signs of a replay of Mandal politics, called so after the then Prime Minister VP Singh, in 1990, dusted off the Mandal Commission report based on the 1931 caste census and announced 27% reservation for OBCs (Other Backward Classes) like Yadavs, Kurmi/Koeris and sections of Baniyas, which were better off than Dalits but were found sufficiently marginalised on socio-economic parameters to merit quota benefits.
The move was evidently aimed at countering the strident Hindutva politics of the BJP during the peak of the Ayodhya Ram temple movement, not very different the saffron party’s current push for a Hindu Rashtra and Uniform Civil Code.
“They want to revive the Mandal politics which has outlived its utility. Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar have realised this can be a big tool to oust the Narendra Modi government from the Centre. But they should remember this is not 1990, as they are facing off an OBC PM and BJP too is pursuing backward politics,” says Nawal Kishore Chaudhary.
In the 2019 general election, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which then included BJP, JD(U) and Lok Janshakti Party, had won 39 of the total 40 Lok Sabha seats from Bihar. The Congress had won one, in Kishanganj.