In the shadow of the dragon

There is understandable scepticism about BRICS, an acronym of the members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. India is playing host to the bloc at the

There is understandable scepticism about BRICS, an acronym of the members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. India is playing host to the bloc at the summit which begins today at a time when both the supposed economic similarities and the expectation of converging interests of these rising powers are under question. The economic trajectories of its members could not be more varied. Commodity-based economies like Brazil, Russia and South Africa are contracting, while more diversified economies like India and China continue to grow. The real imbalance, however, in BRICS is that between China and the rest. China’s economy represents almost two-thirds of the grouping’s combined GDP. In truth, without Beijing the BRICS would be a footnote in the roster of multilateral bodies.

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Does BRICS actually represent a common view of what the world should be and how it should get there? A common platitude is that BRICS nations want a multi-polar world. They share a desire for greater representation of the United Nations and bodies like the IMF and World Bank. They also share positions on issues like trade and climate change. Much of this does not hold up to close scrutiny. China wants a bipolar world in which it is one of the poles — and increasingly Russia and South Africa support this stance. Only two BRICS countries actually back India’s UNSC membership. Beijing is more interested in setting up alternatives to the IMF and World Bank in which it is at its helm. Talk of a common stance in international trade and climate policy is a fiction — BRICS states have gone their own way when the chips are down. All this points to BRICS becoming a vehicle to enhance China’s standing in the world — and in almost every case to the detriment of India.

BRICS is not without its positives. With difficulty it moderates the policies of a Beijing increasingly ready to break rather than modify the international system. If it can make business visas and financial transactions easier among its members it will help facilitate the negligible trade that exists among the non-Chinese members. It seems to fulfil India’s desire for a global narrative that is non-Western but is closer to today’s realities. But New Delhi needs to be far more cognisant of the limitations of BRICS, notably the oversized influence of China and the lack of coherence among its members. BRICS, is a label of aspiration and could become a trade and investment facilitator, and will become a major global force if it speaks in Mandarin — India’s interest lies in the first two objectives.