MLC polls raise key questions

They can’t indicate long-term trends, but point to greater competition in UP & signal a churn in Bihar

Among the many election cycles that populate India’s democracy, those for picking members for the bicameral state legislatures must count as the most chaotic and least instructive. These chambers have limited powers and are used by political parties to accommodate senior leaders not picked for more lucrative positions. The electorates are not very big, the campaign is dominated by political machinations, and the candidates are often entrenched figures. Since these elections are often decided by local factors and personal equations, their results cannot predict long-term trends. But, taking place in some of India’s most politically important states, the latest round throws up key questions.

The legislative council polls gave crucial context to the ballots vs EVMs debate and underlined the need for a new one — whether legislative councils serve any long-term national purpose at all. (ANI)

In poll-bound Uttar Pradesh, the results mirror the main political rivalry in the state, with the BJP and the Samajwadi Party sharing the spoils. The close contest and the SP’s gains will prompt observers to ask whether the 2027 elections will be more closely fought than 2022, and if the Congress is deluded in bargaining for more seats from its putative alliance partner.

In Bihar, the mixed results for both the NDA and the Opposition point to a more fluid political state since Nitish Kumar moved to the Rajya Sabha. The Jan Suraaj Party’s victory and the relatively lacklustre performance of the JD(U) will trigger questions about the future of the dissidence-riven regional behemoth. It will boost Prashant Kishor’s stature in a state where there appears to be a political opening for a new player, though questions remain about his statewide acceptance.

In Karnataka, the Congress’s whitewash — it lost the Bengaluru teachers constituency to the JD(S) — is a symbolic embarrassment for CM DK Shivakumar, who had only recently engineered a majority in the state’s Upper House. The result might not be representative of statewide trends, but it’ll raise more questions about the new CM at a time when the shadow of his predecessor (and associated dissidence) continues to linger.

And in Maharashtra, the results — the ruling coalition was ahead in three seats and the Opposition in two — come after weeks of infighting within both camps. It hints that despite a historic landslide for the Mahayuti in the 2024 assembly polls, the state’s politics remains more competitive than one-sided.

The results have trickled in over two days, after painstaking counting of ballot papers over dozens of hours marked by chaos, allegations of rigging and forcible voting, chaos and protests by every party. In providing a snapshot of the long hours of confusion that was a staple in this country for decades but has faded in the EVM era, the legislative council polls gave crucial context to the ballots vs EVMs debate and underlined the need for a new one — whether legislative councils serve any long-term national purpose at all.