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Time for BJP to choose ride for Tamil Nadu polls as Congress joins DMK
Wooing Jayalalithaa may be a pragmatic option for the BJP after the Congress and DMK formed an alliance
Tamil Nadu’s assembly elections this year seem to have higher stakes for the BJP than it would appear to a casual observer. The party must figure out a way forward in the shifting sands of Dravida politics, which has dominated the state since the 1960s. The recent sealing of an alliance between the DMK and the Congress is a clear gambit against incumbent chief minister J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK and a reiteration of the pact that helped the UPA-1 rule for five years from 2004, but it must be remembered that it also led to the 2G spectrum scandal, which led to the UPA-2’s defeat. In the new scheme of things, the BJP is ambitious enough to show itself up as a third force of sorts with some grassroots work building up a base that led to its getting 5.5% of votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But that simply will not go far enough in its quest to win back honour after a resounding defeat in Bihar in the backdrop of a need to desperately increase its clout in the Rajya Sabha to pass key legislation. That should give credence to feeble signals that the BJP and AIADMK are heading for a marriage of convenience.
Ms Jayalalithaa’s party won 44.9% of votes to sweep the state in the Lok Sabha elections, and the chief minister put behind her corruption case, which had seen her step aside for a while. But the floods in Chennai dented the image considerably. Though that may not wash across the state, some circumspection may be in order for her — with goodies to be had if she plays ball with the party that rules in New Delhi. Movie-star-turned-politician Vijayakanth’s DMDK has shown signals of being less of a joker in the pack and more of a kingmaker (it won 7.2% of votes in the 2011 assembly elections and 5.2% in the Lok Sabha elections).
The BJP now needs to choose between courting him and Vaiko’s MDMK or strike a deal with Ms Jayalalithaa. The latter seems more likely. The DMK and the Congress between them got 30% of votes in 2014. An anti-incumbency surge will clearly aid them.
