At the Janata Dal (United) executive over the weekend, Bihar Chief Minister, Nitish Kumar, told his party delegates that the JD(U) is close to finalising an “honourable” seat-sharing arrangement with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In a reference to doubts about the future of the alliance and reports of differences between the two parties, Mr Kumar asked leaders not to go by media speculation, and be assured that the JD(U) would contest elections with pride and honour. Their aim, he said, must be to ensure that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) wins the maximum number of seats in Bihar.
Mr Kumar’s categorical declaration will not necessarily put an end to speculation about the specifics of the seat-sharing pact, for it does require compromises on all sides. The BJP, which won 22 of the 40 seats in the state, will have to give up a few seats to accommodate the JD(U). And it is never easy to concede seats where a party already has sitting MPs. The JD(U), which used to be the senior partner when it last fought the Lok Sabha elections with the BJP in 2009 (they fought separately in 2014), will have to settle for fewer seats. There are also two other allies, Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha, who need to be accommodated. Till there is an agreement on numbers, uncertainty will persist.
But the big takeaway is that despite difficult negotiations, the alliance will stay. And that is important for the NDA for three reasons. Bihar is a key state in the Lok Sabha elections. The NDA won 32 seats last time around, giving it a huge fillip. At a time when there is a wider alliance ranged against the BJP in the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh, it is important for the NDA to either retain or at least minimise its loss in Bihar. The arithmetic of the NDA alliance gives it an edge. Two, the BJP has suffered from the loss of a major ally — the Telugu Desam Party — and it is not clear if another old ally — the Shiv Sena — will fight elections together. To dispel the impression that it cannot work with smaller parties, it was important for the BJP to retain Nitish Kumar as a partner. Three, for Mr Kumar, who took a major leap — at the cost of being accused of betraying the popular mandate — it would come as a relief that JD(U) is getting a respectable deal. This is key to restoring both his credibility and strength. The contours of the Bihar battle for 2019 are becoming clearer.
{{/usCountry}}But the big takeaway is that despite difficult negotiations, the alliance will stay. And that is important for the NDA for three reasons. Bihar is a key state in the Lok Sabha elections. The NDA won 32 seats last time around, giving it a huge fillip. At a time when there is a wider alliance ranged against the BJP in the neighbouring state of Uttar Pradesh, it is important for the NDA to either retain or at least minimise its loss in Bihar. The arithmetic of the NDA alliance gives it an edge. Two, the BJP has suffered from the loss of a major ally — the Telugu Desam Party — and it is not clear if another old ally — the Shiv Sena — will fight elections together. To dispel the impression that it cannot work with smaller parties, it was important for the BJP to retain Nitish Kumar as a partner. Three, for Mr Kumar, who took a major leap — at the cost of being accused of betraying the popular mandate — it would come as a relief that JD(U) is getting a respectable deal. This is key to restoring both his credibility and strength. The contours of the Bihar battle for 2019 are becoming clearer.
{{/usCountry}}