The World Economic Forum (WEF) is one of the most influential gatherings as far as global capitalism is concerned. The high and mighty of business and policy meet in the backdrop of the snow-covered Alps and often discuss what the future can hold. WEF’s glory days have been associated with the rise of globalisation and free markets. In fact, what is today the WEF used to be just a European gathering before the end of the Cold War.
This year’s
- WEF’s own risk assessment has shifted for worse between 2025 and 2026The WEF’s Global Risks Report 2026 captures this shift starkly. Experts across government, business, academia and civil society see the world entering 2026 in a far more volatile state than a year ago. Half of those surveyed expect the next two years to be turbulent or stormy, reflecting heightened fears around geo-economic confrontation, war, misinformation and social polarisation. The longer-term view is scarcely reassuring. These apprehensions are in keeping with the larger sentiment as seen in indicators such as the global uncertainty index. Notably, these views were expressed in surveys done between August 12 and September 22 last year, before the most recent shocks further destabilised the global order. Things have become significantly worse in the more recent past. Even as Trump leads one of the biggest US contingents into WEF this year, he has gone around precipitating one of the biggest crises in relations between the US and its European allies after his repeated threats to take over Greenland. “This year’s gathering is taking place against the most complex geopolitical backdrop since 1945,” World Economic Forum Chief Executive Børge Brende said on a media call before the event.
- And an IMF report released yesterday, underlines the systemic importance of AI in global economyThe IMF’s January update to the World Economic Outlook shows that the share of IT investment in US GDP reached its highest levels since 2001 last year, drawing a possible parallel with the dotcom era crash in the US economy. To be sure, the IMF report does say “that potential overvaluation for the broad equity index in the United States is only about half that of the dot-com episode” even as it highlights the it would be imprudent to write off systemic risks due to three reasons, namely, AI stocks becoming a primary driver of equity market gains, many AI investments being germane to debt markets rather than equity markets and much higher level of market capitalisation in the US than during the dotcom era. All this means that an AI crash could very well be around the corner.
- Gold and the return of safe havensThe probable perfect storm of geopolitical instability and the bursting of the AI bubble has made investors and markets risk averse in a big way. This is best seen in the almost unprecedented and ongoing rally in gold prices. In dollar terms, gold has gained 68% since the last WEF meeting, much more than what was seen during previous shocks such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
- An increasingly belligerent US President threatening his country’s long-term strategic allies and a once-in-a-lifetime technological shock and the financial disruption which could accompany it, even on their own, would be enough to put the global economic and policy elite on edge. That the two have come together means those partaking in Davos this year may be sweating notwithstanding the snow-covered landscape.
Sreedev Krishnakumar is a data journalist who specialises in stories at the intersection of the economy, geopolitics, politics and finance. His work combines data analysis, reporting and visual storytelling to explain complex issues through evidence-based journalism, with a focus on making public data accessible and meaningful for readers. He joined the Data and Political Economy team at Hindustan Times in 2024 after working as a correspondent/data journalist at Moneycontrol, where he covered macroeconomics, markets, public finance and business. Over the course of his career, he has developed expertise in analysing large datasets, building interactive visualisations and using computational methods to uncover trends and patterns that inform public debate. Sreedev holds a Postgraduate Diploma in Integrated Multimedia Journalism from the Asian College of Journalism. His reporting interests include finance, economics, geopolitics, trade, technology and development.
Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. He heads the newsroom's data journalism team, which produces Number Theory, a daily data-driven feature for the print edition and the HT app. Number Theory uses data analysis and story-telling based on it to add value to the newsroom’s daily coverage by putting stories in a larger context on a range of issues, including politics, macroeconomy, markets, global affairs and climate. Under his leadership HT’s data journalism work has established itself as a niche product in Indian journalism and pushed the boundaries of marrying academic rigour with news sense and speed. Along with writing and editing data stories, he has also been writing a weekly political economy column called Terms of Trade for HT Premium. A trained economist with an MPhil degree from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Kishore has also been a visiting fellow at the Centre for Advanced Studies of India (CASI) at the University of Pennsylvania. Along with his journalistic work, his writings have also appeared in journals such as the Economic and Political Weekly and working papers for CASI and UNESCAP.