With five races left in this year’s Formula 1 season to decide the drivers’ title, a compelling intra-team battle has morphed into a compelling inter-team battle. A title that was McLaren’s to win is now McLaren’s to lose, as Max Verstappen and Red Bull overcome chunks from their deficit and pile on the pressure. Mathematically, Verstappen is attempting to do what no driver has managed under the current points system that has been in place since 15 seasons—come first from
Tall odds
Tall odds
The current points system—25, 18 and 15, respectively, for the top 3 positions—came into force in 2010. In the 15 completed seasons since, there have been six instances where a driver has trailed at the half-way stage of the season (by races) but has gone on to win the championship. Sebastian Vettel did it twice with Red Bull, as did Lewis Hamilton with Mercedes. In 2012, Vettel made up 44 points, which is the most among this set of six drivers.
This underscores the slim margins at the very top of F1. A fast car goes a long way in F1 and there’s so much that drivers can claw back. It’s what makes Max Verstappen’s current surge all the more impressive. Verstappen is attempting to make up a deficit of 69 points in the second half of the 2025 season, which is 25 points more than the record held by Vettel.
Ebbs and flows
But it’s not been a straight line for Verstappen. After 12 races, the halfway point of this 24-race 2025 season, Verstappen was 69 points behind the leader in the championship, Oscar Piastri of McLaren. The subsequent three races—at Belgium, Hungary and Netherlands—saw that gap increase to 104 points, and the storyline of Verstappen being in the fray was all but written off.
But in the four races since—at Monza, Baku, Singapore and Austin—Verstappen has outscored Piastri by 64 points. Verstappen is still third in the championship, but he’s reduced the deficit to 40 points. During this time, the McLaren duo of Piastri and Lando Norris, with the licence to race among themselves, have collided twice. The collisions have lost them some points, but more than that, it’s raised questions about McLaren’s strategic choices in their attempt to win a title they last won in 2008.
Four-way fight
However, Verstappen only has five races left and McLaren remains a faster car than the Red Bull. The other unique thing about Verstappen’s charge is that he’s attempting to leapfrog from third place. Five of the six drivers who have come from behind since 2010 were essentially locked in a two-way fight.
The only instance a driver won the title in this period after being third at the halfway stage is Sebastian Vettel for Red Bull in 2010. This was the first of his four straight titles. That compelling season had four drivers from three teams in the title mix. In the 19-race season, the lead changed nine times. Between race 7 and 18, Vettel never led, instead oscillating between positions 2 and 4. All four drivers entered the last race with a chance to win, with Vettel third in the standings. An authoritative drive on his side and wobbles for the others saw him slink ahead by 4 points.
Intra-team loss
More than that 2010 season, the 2025 season has shades of 2007. Like this year, McLaren was a cut above with its car. Like this year, it had two drivers who were both at the top of their game and in the thick of the title hunt. But as the season progressed, the team’s decision to let the drivers race and not set ground rules descended into subterfuge and rancour.
McLaren started giving up points they shouldn’t have. In what was then the old points system, Kimi Raikkonen of Ferrari made up a deficit that was 26 points at its peak, and sneaked ahead in the last race by 1 point. Given that the current points system is, crudely put, about 2.25-2.5 times the old system, that’s effectively erasing a deficit of 60-odd points under the current system. Raikkonen’s performance engineer that year than was Andrea Stella, the team principal of McLaren today. A man of great balance and perspective, Stella would not like to see the shoe being on the other foot. www.howindialives.com is a database and search engine for public data
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