Number Theory: How CMs underscore BJP's dominance in electoral landscape

The Delhi oath aside, this is a good day to statistically examine the BJP’s current dominance in Indian electoral politics.

Rekha Gupta took oath as the chief minister of Delhi today. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s 2025 victory in the Capital is only its second in eight assembly elections held in Delhi since 1993. This victory also breaks an impasse that existed since 2015, when the party swept all seven parliamentary constituencies in Delhi the previous year but performed miserably in assembly elections. The Delhi oath aside, this is a good day to statistically examine the BJP’s current dominance in Indian electoral politics.

Delhi CM-designate Rekha Gupta at the BJP HQ in Delhi on Wednesday. (Sanchit Khanna/ HT Photo)

How CMs underscore BJP's dominance in electoral landscape

• BJP and its allies run two-thirds of the state governments in India

  There are 28 states and three Union territories (UTs) with a legislative assembly in India at the moment. With a chief minister in Delhi, 14 of these 31 states and UTs now have a BJP CM. This number would be 15 if N Biren Singh – he resigned on 9 February 2025 – was still the chief minister of Manipur, which is now under President’s Rule. Another five states and the UT of Puducherry have a chief minister from a party that is a member of either the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or NEDA (North East Democratic Alliance).
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  Number of current BJP chief ministers is almost at par with its highest ever

  The BJP was formed in 1980 and got its first chief minister in 1990 (Bhairon Singh Shekhawat in Rajasthan). Until 2014, the BJP’s share in total number of chief ministers at any point of time never crossed 27%. This number reached its highest level when the BJP had 16 out of 31 chief ministers (51.6%) in May 2018. While this number fell for a while in the subsequent period, it has almost bounced back to the same level now.
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  BJP’s share in MLAs is the highest ever at the moment and highest for any party since 1989

  Out of the 4,111 MLAs elected according to the latest election cycle (this includes Manipur which is under President’s Rule but where the assembly has not been dissolved), 1,634 or 39.7% are from the BJP. This is the highest ever share of MLAs for the BJP since it contested its first elections. In fact, the last time a political party had a higher share of MLAs than the BJP was in 1989 when the Congress had 47.5% of all MLAs.
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  The BJP has increased its share of MLAs in 20 out of 31 legislative assemblies in the last two elections

  If one were to compare the seat share of the BJP in every state and UT in the latest round of assembly elections and the one before that, the party’s representation has increased in 20 out of 31 regions. The BJP has also maintained its previous seat share in Assam and Nagaland. In 16 of these, its seat share is the highest ever -- underlining the BJP’s expansion and dominance across large swathes of India.