The Union territory (UT) of Jammu & Kashmir is in the midst of its first assembly elections. Given the erstwhile state’s – it became a UT in 2019 – turbulent political history, the ongoing elections are largely seen as a debate on larger political issues such as the abrogation of Article 370 and the restoration of statehood for Jammu & Kashmir. Without prejudice to any of these issues, there is another question to be asked about the elections. How much
- Jammu & Kashmir’s consumption spending is slightly above the all-India averageData from the 2022-23 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) shows that the average person from Jammu & Kashmir spends slightly more than the average Indian. Jammu & Kashmir’s average monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) was ₹4,713 compared to the all-India figure of ₹4,534. To be sure, a comparison of 2022-23 HCES data with the 2011-12 numbers shows that Jammu & Kashmir’s lead over all-India MPCE has fallen in the last decade from 7.8% to 3.9% between the 2011-12 and 2022-23 consumption surveys.
- Muslims in Jammu & Kashmir have a much bigger advantage over their counterparts in the rest of the countryWhat made Jammu & Kashmir unique among Indian states was the fact that it was the only Muslim-majority state in India. According to the 2011 census, the share of Muslim population in Jammu & Kashmir (after excluding the two Ladakh districts) was 69%. How do Jammu & Kashmir’s Muslims compare with the rest of Muslims in the country when it comes to consumption spending? Data shows that Jammu & Kashmir’s MPCE advantage was larger vis-à-vis the rest of the country when it came to just Muslims rather than the entire population. The average MPCE of Muslims in Jammu & Kashmir in 2022-23 was ₹4,345 which was 7.4% more than the average MPCE for Muslims at the national level. To be sure, Jammu & Kashmir has seen a loss of its lead in average MPCE for both Muslims and the overall population between 2011-12 and 2022-23.
- Jammu & Kashmir’s Muslims are not the richest in the country when it comes to consumption spendingWhile the average Muslim in Jammu & Kashmir is more well-to-do than the average Indian Muslim, there are many states where Muslims are better than their counterparts in Jammu & Kashmir. This could be a result of the overall economic ranking of the UT among different states and UTs. A comparison of average MPCE for Muslims and the entire population across states where at least one percent of India’s Muslims live shows that economic fortunes of Muslims are pretty closely tied with that of the entire population, with MPCE for the two categories showing a strong positive correlation.
- But neither Jammu & Kashmir, nor its Muslims are an economically homogeneous groupThis can be seen from the classification of households into national wealth quintiles – bottom to top 20% -- by the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) conducted in 2019-21. This part of the analysis uses NFHS data instead of NSSO data because the latter is not representative at the district level. The 2019-21 NFHS – the latest available -- shows that 33% of the population in the Jammu region is among the top 20% richest households in the country. This share is just 17.6% for the Kashmir region. The Jammu region also has a higher concentration of the population classified among the poorest 20% in the country. 13% of the region is in the poorest 20% group compared to just 7% in Kashmir. As is obvious, this is because Jammu has a smaller proportion of its population in the middle classes. The trends seen for the overall population are somewhat reversed when looking at the economic condition of Muslims in the two regions. Muslims in Jammu are more likely to belong to the poorest quintiles than the Muslims in the Kashmir region. However, even the regions are not economically homogeneous. For example, while 12% of Muslims in the Jammu region are among the richest 20% households in the country, this share is 67% for Muslims living in the Jammu district, higher than even the 36% figure for Srinagar. To be sure, only a minuscule 0.6% of the UT’s Muslims live in Jammu district compared to 14% in Srinagar, according to NFHS. These numbers suggest that it would be unwise to completely write off bread and butter issues in the ongoing Jammu & Kashmir elections.
Abhishek Jha is Assistant Editor-Data at Hindustan Times. He uses statistical programming to generate newsworthy insights from large datasets. He is part of the team that produces Number Theory, a daily data story feature of the paper’s print edition. Since March 2024, he has been writing Weather Bee, a weekly column for the Hindustan Times website. He is a chemical engineer by training, who specialises in stories related to weather, climate, and the environment. Jha has been at HT since 2018, where he offers data-driven perspective and analysis on politics, environment, weather, climate, economy and society. His work includes data coverage of elections in India and abroad, including the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha elections; the disasters and extreme weather resulting from changing climate, such as floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, and dwindling snow cap in the Himalayas; the factors that drive poor air quality in northern India; the changing patterns of land use; the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on labour market conditions; the changing pattern of consumer spending seen in the new consumer spending surveys; and social norms seen in the surveys such as the National Family Health Survey.
Roshan Kishore is the Data and Political Economy Editor at Hindustan Times. He heads the newsroom's data journalism team, which produces Number Theory, a daily data-driven feature for the print edition and the HT app. Number Theory uses data analysis and story-telling based on it to add value to the newsroom’s daily coverage by putting stories in a larger context on a range of issues, including politics, macroeconomy, markets, global affairs and climate. Under his leadership HT’s data journalism work has established itself as a niche product in Indian journalism and pushed the boundaries of marrying academic rigour with news sense and speed. Along with writing and editing data stories, he has also been writing a weekly political economy column called Terms of Trade for HT Premium. A trained economist with an MPhil degree from Jawaharlal Nehru University, Kishore has also been a visiting fellow at the Centre for Advanced Studies of India (CASI) at the University of Pennsylvania. Along with his journalistic work, his writings have also appeared in journals such as the Economic and Political Weekly and working papers for CASI and UNESCAP.