100% rains in the August-September period, forecasts IMD
Rainfall over the country is likely to be 100% of the long period average (LPA) in August and September with an error margin of +/-8%, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said on Thursday evening.
In their Long Range Forecast for second half of the monsoon season, IMD has said that rainfall during August is likely to be 99% with +/-9% error margin. It has also reiterated its earlier forecast for the June to September monsoon season to be 96% of LPA.
On El Nino, the IMD report said “Currently, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as well as the atmospheric conditions over equatorial Pacific Ocean indicate El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral to borderline El Niño conditions. The latest forecasts …global models indicate that these conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.”
El Nino is a climate pattern characterized by above normal sea surface temperatures over equatorial Pacific Ocean which contributes to above normal land temperatures in the tropical latitudes. El Nino years in India are linked to below normal monsoon rains and higher than normal frequency of heat waves.
There is 9% deficiency in monsoon rains over LPA as on August 1 with the highest deficiency in Peninsular India at 19%.
“Deficiency will remain even if there is 100% in the second half of monsoon. June deficiency has reduced after July rains. We are maintaining the forecast of 93% of LPA for the entire monsoon season. Only 45 days are left for the season,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather.