A close look at today’s polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa | Latest News India - Hindustan Times
close_game
close_game

A close look at today’s polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa

ByAbhishek Jha
Feb 14, 2022 04:38 AM IST

A total of 165 assembly constituencies (ACs) across Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Goa will vote in the second and second-largest phase on February 14 in what is now a nine-phase election after polling dates for Manipur were revised.

A total of 165 assembly constituencies (ACs) across Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Goa will vote in the second and second-largest phase on February 14 in what is now a nine-phase election after polling dates for Manipur were revised. This will conclude polling in Uttarakhand and Goa, in slightly more than a quarter of ACs in Uttar Pradesh, and in a third of the 690 ACs overall where elections are taking place up to March 7. Here are three charts that explain the contest taking place today.

Polling officials carrying the Electronic Voting Machine (EVMs) and other necessary inputs required for the Uttarakhand Assembly Election, at a distribution centre, in Dehradun on Sunday. February 13, 2022. (ANI Photo)
Polling officials carrying the Electronic Voting Machine (EVMs) and other necessary inputs required for the Uttarakhand Assembly Election, at a distribution centre, in Dehradun on Sunday. February 13, 2022. (ANI Photo)

Catch latest updates related to assembly elections here

Hindustan Times - your fastest source for breaking news! Read now.

Can SP exploit the BJP’s weak link?

The second phase of voting in Uttar Pradesh will take place in the Saharanpur district of the West sub-region (the only district of the sub-region yet to vote) and seven districts of the Rohilkhand sub-region, according to a classification of districts by the Trivedi Centre for Political Data. These eight districts have an aggregate Muslim population share of 38%, twice their share in the state, according to the 2015-16 National Family Health Survey (NFHS). To be sure, the share of Muslim population in individual ACs can vary. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for whom Muslims are unlikely to vote, won a majority (69.1%) of these ACs in both 2014 and 2017, and fell just short of it (49.1% ACs) in 2019. This region is, however, one of the weakest links of the BJP compared to the rest of the state. BJP’s AC-level seat share here was the lowest in 2014 among ACs of the seven phases this year and the second lowest in 2017 and 2019. Is this the strongest phase for the Samajwadi Party (SP) then? Recent trends do suggest so. SP’s seat share and strike rate in these ACs has been 2.3 to 2.6 times its aggregate figure for the state and the highest among constituencies that go to the polls in other phases of the current election.

But there is a caveat.

Although, this region is SP’s strongest, it has only won about a quarter of these ACs since 2014. The bigger dent in BJP’s tally in 2019, despite a bigger vote share, was made possible by the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) increasing its tally from zero in 2014 and 2017 to 14 ACs in 2019, when it was in alliance with the SP without much change in its (BSP’s) vote share (around 20%). In this election, the SP is contesting most of the ACs on its own and has shared three ACs with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which has not polled even 5% of the votes in this region since 2012, not won any ACs here since then, and was not given any constituency to contest in this region in the SP-BSP-RLD alliance of 2019. Thus, whether the result in these ACs in 2022 resembles 2019 in terms of strike rate or the two elections before 2019 will depend to some extent on the transfer of votes from the BSP’s voters in this region, unless the SP-RLD alliance can win back voters who supported the BJP in 2014, 207, and 2019.

Will Uttarakhand hold on to past trends?

The Uttarakhand government has alternated between the BJP and the Congress since the state’s first assembly election in 2002. However, at least two recent trends weigh against this trend continuing in 2022. The state had also alternated between the BJP and the Congress in Lok Sabha elections from 2004, a trend that did not hold in 2019 when the BJP swept the state for a second time and actually increased its AC-level seat share compared to 2014. The second recent trend that shows the BJP’s current stronghold over the state is the overwhelming majority (81.4%) of ACs it won in the last assembly election. The only other time the state gave a majority to one party earlier was in 2002 and it was a thin one. This does not mean that there is no support for the Congress in the state. It has continued to poll at least 30% of the total votes in the state since 2014. However, its ratio of share of ACs won to share of votes won has been at historic lows since 2014.

One factor that may help the Congress in the current election is that the state is likely going through unprecedented economic pain due to the Covid-19 pandemic. A quarter (24.4%) of the state’s labour force was unemployed during the first lockdown (April-June 2020), the latest available figure for the entire state from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). In comparison, the worst unemployment rates among the other states going to polls, in this period was 17.2% in Punjab. Although the situation is likely to have improved, Uttarakhand might still be one of the worst affected states by unemployment. In January-March 2021, the latest period for which quarterly urban bulletins are available from the PLFS, the state’s urban unemployment rate was 14.3%, worse only than the 17.6% rate in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh combined.

Will non-national parties continue to be kingmakers in Goa?

The Congress was the single largest party in the 2017 assembly election in the state. It could not form the government because neither did it have a pre-poll alliance with regional players nor could it make one after the polls. This importance of regional parties was not new. They have played an important role in government formation in the state at least since the 2002 assembly election. The Congress has never won a majority after the 1999 assembly election. The BJP has won a single-party majority once (in 2012) since 2002, but only with the help of a pre-poll alliance with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP). In the 2017 election, when the BJP did not have a pre-poll arrangement with the MGP, it was the second-largest party after Congress. The BJP was able to form the government only with the help of the MGP, the Goa Forward Party (GFP), led by a former Congress legislator, and independents.

These alignments have changed in this election. The MGP is fighting the election in alliance with the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC), a new and minor player. The GFP is in alliance with the Congress and is contesting in three ACs. The BJP is again on its own. The result of the election, beyond whether the BJP or the Congress forms the government, will also be a verdict on whether regional parties continue to hold their position in the state’s politics. It will also show how successful the Aam Admi Party (AAP) has been in creating a real beachhead in the state. The AAP, although a recent contestant like the AITC, had a significant 6.3% vote share in 2017. It finished second in one AC and third in 16.

Unveiling Elections 2024: The Big Picture', a fresh segment in HT's talk show 'The Interview with Kumkum Chadha', where leaders across the political spectrum discuss the upcoming general elections. Watch now!

Get Current Updates on India News, Election 2024, Arvind Kejriwal News Live, Bihar Board 10th Result 2024 Live along with Latest News and Top Headlines from India and around the world.
SHARE THIS ARTICLE ON
Share this article
  • ABOUT THE AUTHOR
    author-default-90x90

    Abhishek Jha is a data journalist. He analyses public data for finding news, with a focus on the environment, Indian politics and economy, and Covid-19.

SHARE
Story Saved
Live Score
OPEN APP
Saved Articles
Following
My Reads
Sign out
New Delhi 0C
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Start 14 Days Free Trial Subscribe Now
Follow Us On