Big milestone for vax drive: Billion doses and counting

The billionth shot of the Covid-19 vaccine was administered in India on Thursday morning – exactly nine months and five days after the country’s massive Covid-19 immunisation programme kicked off on January 16

The billionth shot of the Covid-19 vaccine was administered in India on Thursday morning – exactly nine months and five days after the country’s massive Covid-19 immunisation programme kicked off on January 16.

Amid the country crossing the one billion mark for Covid-19 vaccine doses, Maharashtra has administered over 93 million doses till date (SATISH BATE/HT)(HT_PRINT)

The significant milestone in the country’s grand vaccination drive, one of the world’s largest, comes at a time when the second wave of Covid-19, which ravaged India in the summer, continues to recede with new infections currently at the lowest levels in more than seven months – a factor that experts have credited, at least in part, to the success of the vaccination campaign.

In absolute numbers, the billion (100 crore) shots place India as the second country in the world (next to China with 2.2 billion shots administered) in terms of total Covid-19 vaccine doses administered. The vaccines were administered in roughly 430,000 centres and a total of at least around 2 million health workers were directly involved in the process.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed gratitude to doctors, nurses and all those who worked on crossing 100 crore vaccinations. “India scripts history. We are witnessing the triumph of Indian science, enterprise and collective spirit of 130 crore Indians. Congrats India on crossing 100 crore vaccinations. Gratitude to our doctors, nurses and all those who worked to achieve this feat. #VaccineCentury,” he tweeted .

On Thursday morning as the news broke of the country’s billion-dose milestone, the PM visited Delhi’s Ram Manohar Lohia (RML) Hospital’s vaccination centre and interacted with hospital officials, beneficiaries, and frontline workers. He was accompanied by Union health minister Mansukh Mandaviya.

As of 11pm on Thursday, 100,6152,914 shots of the Covid-19 vaccine have been administered across the country to 710.9 million people, according to data from Union health ministry’s CoWIN dashboard. This means that about three-fourth (75.6%) of India’s nearly 940 million adults have now received at least one dose while around 31% are fully immunised, data shows.

Of these, around 886 million doses have been of Covishield (the brand name under which Pune-based Serum Institute of India has been manufacturing the vaccine developed by Oxford-AstraZeneca), while around 115 million doses have been of Covaxin (the shot developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the country’s apex biomedical research regulator, the Indian Council of Medical Research).

To celebrate the event, a series of events were held around the country, including the launch of a theme song and the release of an AV. The largest khadi tricolour in the country, weighing around 1,400 kg, displayed only on special days, was unfurled to mark the occasion, and 100 monuments under the Archeological Survey of India (ASI) were illuminated in tri-colour and local artists displayed 100 different ideas across 100 districts.

The UN health body, World Health Organisation (WHO) also congratulated India. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus congratulated PM Modi, scientists, health workers and Indian citizens. “Congratulations, Prime Minister @narendramodi, the scientists, #healthworkers and people of #India, on your efforts to protect the vulnerable populations from #COVID19 and achieve #VaccinEquity targets,” he said in a tweet.

The roll out of the vaccine drive was patchy, largely on account of supply issues but after the second wave, the pace of vaccinations has picked up – more than half of the billion shots have been administered since August 1.

“There were some issues in the beginning, but gradually the supplies improved as companies increased their monthly vaccine production. For the month of October, The Centre has been promised about 280 million vaccine doses that includes 220 million doses of Covishield and another 60 million of Covaxin. This is going to go up further. Zydus, for example, should be able to give 6 million doses of their vaccine ZyCoV-D. Increased supplies also lead to increased number of single day vaccinations that puts the whole vaccination drive at a far better place then where we were a few months ago,” said a senior government official aware of the matter on condition of anonymity.

The makers of Covaxin and Covishield, Bharat Biotech and Serum Institute of India also appreciated Indian government’s efforts to administer such a large number of doses in nine months.

“Reaching the 1 billion mark of Covid-19 vaccinations in just nine months is a remarkable achievement for India. Bharat Biotech is proud to have contributed to this historic landmark. This is a unified effort of the government, vaccine manufacturers, health care workers and all the vaccinated citizens of India, making it a true success story of atmanirbharta,” said Krishna Ella, chairman and managing director, Bharat Biotech.

Suchitra Ella, joint managing director, Bharat Biotech, thanked the government and all the stakeholders. “We thank the PMO, ministry of health, Indian Council of Medical Research, academic collaborators, industry partners, stakeholders, suppliers and employees for enabling us to maximise our efforts and deliver Covaxin successfully to India’s vaccination.”

Serum Institute of India’s CEO, Adar Poonawalla, said he feels he made the right decision by tying up for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. “Everyone has been watching this journey and has been a part of this journey along with us; ever since we tied up and made the decisions. The first milestone was finding the right partner and the right vaccine partners in terms of technology and which vaccine will work. We have been incredibly fortunate and lucky to have Oxford and AstraZeneca as a partner,” said Poonawalla.

THE PATH AHEAD

India’s next target is to fully vaccinate all adults by the end of the year.

The demands on the pace of vaccination drive remain high, with the daily dose rate having seen a near-consistent decline from the peak levels seen during the second half of September – a factor that Union health ministry officials and experts have attributed to low turnout during the ongoing festive season and the country nearing a ceiling in terms of coverage of population. The seven-day average of daily vaccinations, which touched a peak of 9.7 million for the week ending September 23, dropped nearly 60% to around 4 million shots a day in the past week.

An easy way to understand the impact of this drop in vaccination pace is to see it as the required run rate in the final overs of a cricket match. In the race for vaccination, as is the case in a run chase, a slower run rate in the middle of an innings requires heavy slogging in the final overs. In the case of vaccination, it means that if India had sustained its shot rate from September end, then it would have been on course to meet its year-end target; but the recent drop has now pushed the required rate to more than 12 million doses every day till the end of the year.

Such a calculation, of course, assumes that the entire adult population of the country will want vaccines, an unlikely proposition. Most experts fear the vaccine drive will hit a ceiling around the 75-80% level. At 75%, it would mean India has to administer only 875 million more shots till the end of the year.

In a press briefing on Thursday, Congress general secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala raised the required rate of vaccination to criticise the government. “Data shows that in 70 days, 106 crore Covid-19 vaccines need to be administered... Will the Modi government, instead of making television headlines, answer how it is going to administer 106 crore vaccines in 70 days, and what is going to be their policy?” the Congress leader asked.

India has around 940 million people aged 18 and over, which means that it actually has to administer around 875 million shots over 71 days.