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Bihar election 2025: What are exit polls and how are they conducted?
Once voting wraps up around 5 pm, leading pollsters such as Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CSDS, C Voter, will begin releasing their poll projections.
As Bihar gears up for the final leg of voting in the 2025 assembly elections, all eyes are now on the Bihar exit poll results, to be released on Tuesday evening, soon after polling concludes. The official counting of votes and the results for the Bihar Vidhan Sabha will be declared on November 14.
The 243-member Bihar assembly requires a simple majority of 122 seats to form the government. The high-stakes Bihar election will determine whether chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U)-BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) retains the reigns, or if Tejashwi Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress-led INDIA bloc succeeds in ending Kumar’s 20-years-long tenure.
Once voting wraps up around 5 pm, leading pollsters such as Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CSDS, C Voter, Times Now, and Poll of Polls will begin releasing their assembly election exit poll projections. Follow Bihar election 2025 live updates
What are exit polls?
An exit poll is a post-voting survey aimed at understanding voter preferences and predicting the likely outcome of an election. Conducted after voters leave polling stations, these polls gauge how people voted and why.
While Bihar election polls are not always perfectly accurate, they offer insights into voter sentiment, indicating possible trends and swing patterns before official results are declared.
Also Read | Bihar election 2025 result date: All you need to know about counting of votes
The accuracy of an exit poll depends on multiple factors, including the sampling method used, margin of error, and voters’ willingness to share their choices.
As exit polls are conducted on the same day as polling, they are expected to better capture the Bihar chunav result mood than opinion polls, which are conducted in advance and are more speculative.
How are exit polls conducted?
Survey agencies approach voters after they have cast their ballots, using structured questionnaires that ask about their voting choices and demographic factors such as age, gender, and religion – all of which can influence voting behaviour.
- The questions are usually kept close-ended to predict the pattern clearly.
- To ensure balanced representation, polling agencies select sample stations from across urban and rural constituencies in different regions.
- Depending on their approach, the pollsters may use random or strategic sampling techniques to create a comprehensive picture of likely outcomes.
- Once responses are collected, analysts process the data to detect trends, identify regional variations, and assess which parties or candidates might lead in specific constituencies.
Though conducted by private agencies, exit polls are regulated by the Election Commission of India (ECI).
As per ECI guidelines, no poll projections can be broadcast or published until the final phase of polling concludes. Any violation of this rule may attract penalties, including imprisonment of up to two years or a fine.
