NEW DELHI: Wary of rebels spoiling the show in Gujarat, the Bharatiya Janata Patry (BJP) is treading cautiously in crossing out names of sitting legislators from the list of contestants in Gujarat , which goes to polls in December.
The BJP has typically followed the practice of dropping up to 30% of sitting legislators to buck anti- incumbency and to accommodate newer and younger faces. However, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) pitching itself as an alternative in the state, where elections have traditionally been a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Congress, there is a possibility of rebels joining the new entrants, and the BJP wants to avoid that, people familiar with the matter said.
“In Himachal Pradesh, for instance 11 sitting MLAs (out of the party’s strength in the assembly of 68) were dropped; despite the party reaching out to them, many are contesting as independents … even if they don’t win, they are likely to dent the BJP’s vote bank. The party does not want such a situation to recur in Gujarat,” said one of the people, a party functionary who asked not to be named.
In Bihar, rebels were blamed for bringing down the JDU’s and in turn the NDA’s tally in the 2020 assembly polls. The BJP and the JDU fought as allies, but as many as 9 BJP leaders including a sitting MLA were expelled from the party after they filed nominations as candidates from the Lok Janshakti Party led by Chirag Paswan. Though the NDA formed the government, the JDU later blamed Paswan’s party of adversely impacting its performance in over 50 assembly seats. The BJP and the JDU have since split and a new government (JDU + RJD) is in place.
{{/usCountry}}In Bihar, rebels were blamed for bringing down the JDU’s and in turn the NDA’s tally in the 2020 assembly polls. The BJP and the JDU fought as allies, but as many as 9 BJP leaders including a sitting MLA were expelled from the party after they filed nominations as candidates from the Lok Janshakti Party led by Chirag Paswan. Though the NDA formed the government, the JDU later blamed Paswan’s party of adversely impacting its performance in over 50 assembly seats. The BJP and the JDU have since split and a new government (JDU + RJD) is in place.
{{/usCountry}}In 2021, in a surprise move, the central leadership announced a complete overhaul of the state government in Gujarat. While Bhupendra Patel replaced Vijay Rupani as the Chief Minister, a whole new set of ministers was sworn-in too. The drastic measure was perceived as a pre-emptive strike to blunt anti-incumbency and to mitigate public anger against the state government over a host of issues including its handling of the Covid crisis.
“There has been a buzz that this time the party will drop around 25% of the sitting candidates. But this (selection) is an elaborate exercise, which takes into account several factors such as caste equations, cadre feedback and most of all winnability; adhering to these requirements the central election committee will take a call on the contestants,” the functionary quoted above said.
The party will also be more conscious of giving tickets to rebels from other parties, said the functionary. In 2017 when the party with 99 seats formed the government only two of the seven former Congress MLAs who were fielded as contestants won.
Apart from candidate selection process, the party’s chief strategist and union home minister Amit Shah has also been focusing on identifying the finer-points of the party’s election campaign. Shah has held several rounds of meetings with the CM, state president CR Paatil and senior state leaders over the past month.
The AAP for its part has been attempting to set the narrative in Gujarat, promising freebies, wooing the Patels, an important vote bloc, and playing the religious card (its latest suggestion is that images of Hindu Gods Lakshmi and Ganesh be printed on currency to strengthen the rupee). The BJP has been quick to react, calling the promises of 300 units of free power, pensions, and a million new jobs as tall claims that the people of Gujarat will not fall for.
Gujarat-based political analyst Ghanshyam Shah said the BJP will not only find it difficult to drop a significant number of sitting candidates, but will have to work doubly hard to counter the AAP’s bid. “The word revdi (freebie) was used by the Prime Minister only after the AAP made promises of free power etc. The advertisements showcasing the BJP’s achievements in the last 20 years, the second free cylinder and more money for farmers are indications that the party is taking the AAP seriously,” he said.