Amid rising temperatures and a severe heat wave raging across the country, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), on Friday (May 29), issued its second-stage long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season.
The forecast projects below-normal rainfall across several key areas of the country along with warning of continued heat wave conditions in multiple states starting in June, as reported by HT earlier.
Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra addressed a press conference wherein he revealed that the country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent — a projection that is two per cent lower than the April forecast.
“We are providing the second-stage update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 per cent of the LPA, with a 4 per cent model error,” he added.
Below-normal rainfall
As per the regional forecast, Northeast India is slated to receive normal levels of rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. The regions expected to be affected by below-normal monsoon levels this season include Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone.
{{/usCountry}}As per the regional forecast, Northeast India is slated to receive normal levels of rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. The regions expected to be affected by below-normal monsoon levels this season include Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone.
{{/usCountry}}Mohapatra further clarified that rainfall is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country in June while some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India and the southern peninsula experience normal to above-normal rainfall levels.
Above-normal temperatures
As monsoon levels slip down, temperatures are expected to remain above-normal throughout June as well. Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are expected to witness a more-than-average number of heat wave days while parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu trail behind.
"Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal," Mohapatra revealed.
Ocean and winds
Coming to the matter of expected oceanic conditions, Mohapatra revealed that neutral ENSO conditions have started transitioning towards El Nino as the probability of it rising to 82 per cent by June and crossing 90 per cent by July and August increases. So far, rainfall levels have recorded at four per cent above normal across the country for May, while the cumulative seasonal rainfall up to May 27 stood one per cent above normal.
The southwest monsoon advanced into the Andaman and Nicobar Islands four days ahead of the onset date on May 16 and has since moved into the South Arabian Sea and the Lakshwadeep. Conditions remain favourable over Kerala and the northeastern states over the course of the next week for the southwest monsoon's arrival.