The Congress’ defeat in Haryana –– and performance in Jammu & Kashmir where its alliance with the National Conference is set to form the government –– highlighted the principal Opposition party’s difficulties in, one, defeating the BJP in direct contests in northern India, and two, faring well without the support of allies.
In Haryana, it won 37 seats in the 90-member assembly, losing an election, everyone, including its rivals, expected it to win comfortably. And in J&K, it won only six of the 39-seats it contested, and will be in power thanks to the stellar showing of its ally.
Tuesday may well be remembered as the day the party lost much of the momentum it gained after its performance in the Lok Sabha elections.
Difficulty in taking on the BJP in north India
For the past decade, the Congress’s key electoral goal has been to improve its position and strike rate in north Indian states where is it in direct contest with the BJP. Last year, it lost the Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan polls. In 2022, it won Himachal Pradesh while the BJP won Uttarakhand.
On Tuesday, the BJP won its third consecutive victory in state elections in Haryana, the sixth north Indian state where it is in direct contest with the Congress.
{{/usCountry}}On Tuesday, the BJP won its third consecutive victory in state elections in Haryana, the sixth north Indian state where it is in direct contest with the Congress.
{{/usCountry}}Read more: Historic Haryana hat-trick for BJP, INDIA begins new innings in J&K
Congress strategists admit that the party has lost vital ground in north India. But its failing poses a larger problem.
“The biggest problem for the opposition is that the Congress is not able to grow in states where it faces the BJP. In other states, it plays a second fiddle to strong regional parties,” a non-Congress leader said, seeking anonymity.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress managed to nearly double its tally, and won 27 of its 99 seats from north India; the BJP won 154 of its 240 seats from the north Indian states (this number includes Gujarat).
For a few years now, several Congress strategists have pointed to this. “Our focus has remained on improving our strike rate in north India. Only if we expand our presence in north India, do we have a better chance to tackle the BJP nationally,” said a Congress leader.
While smaller parties played spoiler in some seats in Haryana, the contest in the state has increasingly become bipolar (the INLD, JJP and the AAP were almost wiped out).
Dependence on INDIA partners
In 2023, the Congress and at least 34 other parties came together to form the INDIA bloc to take on the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The alliance fought together in some parts of India except in 15 states and UTs where the Congress went at it alone.
The Congress has done well in polls in some southern states. It defeated the BJP in Karnataka and won against BRS in Telangana. The Congress-led UDF won 18 of 20 seats in Kerala in the summer’s Lok Sabha election.
But on the other side of the Vindhya mountains, the party’s prospects depends on allies. The Congress has strong allies in Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and J&K. In West Bengal, the party had entered into an alliance for the first time with its erstwhile rival Left. In Delhi, a desperate Congress entered into an agreement with AAP even as it was fighting against the party in Punjab.
Some of these alliances have helped the Congress win a large number of seats. Indeed, three partnerships (with the Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SCP) in Maharashtra, DMK in Tamil Nadu, and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh), netted it 28 Lok Sabha seats.
Addressing party workers on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the Congress as a “parasite”. “In J&K, its ally, had said they are suffering due to the Congress. In the Lok Sabha, Congress won 50% of its seats because of its allies. But in states where allies depend on the Congress, their electoral boats get drowned. Congress is such a parasite that it swallows its own allies.”
Failure to retain Lok Sabha poll momentum
At the Mumbai meeting of the INDIA bloc in September last year, alliance partners prodded the Congress to quickly start the seat-sharing talks. Congress strategists, expecting a sweeping victory in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh that were due to go to polls later that year, delayed the seat sharing talks. But the plans backfired after the party failed to win the two states.
For the Congress, the disappointing Haryana results come amid its seat-sharing talks with the MVA allies in Maharashtra ahead of the coming state elections. “A victory in Haryana would have bolstered our negotiating power,” said a Congress leader from Mumbai.
The Haryana polls — the first after the Lok Sabha election –– have all but killed the momentum of the party’s Lok Sabha polls performance.
Meanwhile, in J&K, the Congress will form a government with J&K National Conference but the credit of winning J&K polls will largely (and rightly) go to the National Conference.
“Haryana was a shocking defeat for us,” said a senior Congress leader.
“...The results in Haryana are totally unexpected, completely surprising and counter-intuitive. It goes against ground reality. It goes against what the people of Haryana had made their minds up for, which was for change and transformation. I think under these circumstances, it is not possible for us to accept the results that have been announced today,” Congress general secretary Jairam Ramesh said.
Ramesh tried to blame the EVMs. “We have received very serious complaints on the process of counting, the functioning of EVMs in at least three districts. There are more that are coming in. We have spoken to our senior colleagues in Haryana and this information is being collected. We hope to present this in a consolidated form to the Election Commission tomorrow or the day after,” he added.
The Election Commission has strongly refuted these allegations. “The Commission unequivocally rejects your attempt to surreptitiously give credence to irresponsible, unfounded and uncorroborated malafide narratives,” it said in a statement.
But the party has to do more than blame EVMs. In the coming months, the party faces a series of assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi. It has to improve its strike rate in north India and emerge as a valuable partner for its allies.