Number Theory: Decoding BJP’s improved showing in state elections

The BJP’s record in the last two Lok Sabha elections continues to be better than its performance in state elections in most cases

Despite the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) victory in the recent state elections, there is one fact that remains unchanged in the party’s post-2014 story. The BJP’s record in the last two Lok Sabha elections continues to be better than its performance in state elections in most cases. For example, the 332 assembly constituencies (ACs) that the BJP won in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh in the recent polls are still far less than the 444 and

A long-term analysis of BJP’s state election performance suggests that it has improved its performance in them after 2014. (PTI)

BJP has improved its state election performance although not as much as in Lok Sabha elections

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  BJP has improved its state election performance although not as much as in Lok Sabha elections

  This can be intuited from the fact that the BJP does not appear as invincible in state elections as it does in Lok Sabha elections. However, numbers show just how much the BJP’s performance in state elections has changed. HT calculated the share of India’s ACs BJP won in state elections in each five-year period since 1980, when it fought its first set of state elections. This shows that up to the 1985-89 period, the BJP won about 5% of ACs. Things changed after 1989. In the 1990-94 period, the party won 25% of ACs in assembly polls. Up to the 2010-2014 period, the BJP would continue to win only around 20-25% of ACs. Its best performance before 2014 in the Lok Sabha in AC terms was 30% in 1999. So the performance at both the state at national levels were largely along the same lines. It is in the post-2014 period, that the BJP’s Lok Sabha and assembly performances have really diverged. The BJP won 32% and 39% ACs in the 2015-2019 and 2020-2023 periods in state elections, compared to over 46% and 51% ACs in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. To be sure, as these numbers show, the BJP’s state election performance has also improved sharply in the post-2014 period.
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  BJP has increased its stronghold footprint and decreased the share of ACs it never wins

  While a party can maintain its overall performance by winning in different regions in different periods, holding on to the same ACs highlights committed support for a party. The numbers show that such support for the BJP has also increased its success rate in state elections. In the 1990-2007 period, the BJP won every election in 131 of the 4,050 ACs (3%), excluding Uttarakhand. This changed to 278 of 4,050 ACs (7%) in the 2008-2023 period. It has also made inroads in places where it had no success earlier. The share of ACs the BJP has never won has decreased from 61% to 48.5% between the 1990-2007 and 2008-2023 periods. HT’s analysis looks at two distinct periods in the party’s evolution (1990-2007 and 2008 onwards) because several AC boundaries were changed in 2007. HT has also accounted for bifurcation of states by treating the ACs of the newly created states (Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Telangana) as part of their former states. Uttarakhand was excluded because more ACs were created in Uttarakhand when it was separated from Uttar Pradesh, unlike the other three states where the number was ACs was unchanged.
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  Which states has BJP made its stronghold and where has it made inroads?

  Between the two periods (1990-2007 and 2008-2023), the BJP has increased the number of ACs it always wins by 147. Which states have contributed the most to these gains? As expected, this has happened in regions where the BJP had already won elections in 1990-2007, or where it had a foothold -- Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand (taken together), Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. On the other hand, the number of ACs BJP never wins decreased by 506. The states where the BJP has recently made inroads or where it has recently broken long-term alliances to fight by itself are West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand (taken together), Maharashtra, Assam, and Haryana.