El Nino— the Pacific warming pattern that weakens India’s monsoon and drives harsh summers — is now underway, according to Japan’s meteorological agency on Wednesday, a declaration that puts India’s weather establishment on notice as the rain-bearing season struggles to establish itself.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said conditions characteristic of El Nino have been observed in both the ocean and atmosphere of the equatorial Pacific, and that an event is currently underway. India’s own weather office has not yet made the same declaration, but the threshold is close. “We will issue a statement soon based on the models we consult, on the onset of El Nino conditions,” said M Mohapatra, director general of IMD.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, issuing its assessment on June 9, stopped short of a full declaration but confirmed the Pacific is closing in on the threshold. Sea-surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific now exceed El Ninothresholds, and atmospheric indicators are beginning to align, BOM said. “Should this be sustained, an El Nino event is likely to become established,” it said.
The development confirms what IMD’s revised forecast on May 29 had anticipated. India’s monsoon rainfall this season is projected at 90% of the long-period average — down from the 92% forecast in April — with El Nino expected to suppress rainfall particularly in the second half of the season. The LPA, based on 1971–2020 data, is 87cm. The forecast also flags a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon. In India, El Nino is historically associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers; the current season is tracking that pattern in some ways, with the onset over Kerala delayed and June forecast to be below normal.
{{/usCountry}}The development confirms what IMD’s revised forecast on May 29 had anticipated. India’s monsoon rainfall this season is projected at 90% of the long-period average — down from the 92% forecast in April — with El Nino expected to suppress rainfall particularly in the second half of the season. The LPA, based on 1971–2020 data, is 87cm. The forecast also flags a 60% chance of a deficient monsoon. In India, El Nino is historically associated with weaker monsoons and harsher summers; the current season is tracking that pattern in some ways, with the onset over Kerala delayed and June forecast to be below normal.
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The season’s importance to India cannot be overstated. Nearly half of the country’s net-sown area lacks irrigation access, and the system replenishes 91 natural reservoirs that supply power generation and drinking water. The season arrives as cultivators already face a potential shortfall in fertiliser supplies caused by the war in West Asia. The UN Secretary-General had moved to frame the moment as a global emergency. “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” António Guterres said on June 2.
Also Read: IMD downgrades monsoon forecast to below normal, warns of hotter June: Here’s why
The global temperature data underscores the context in which El Nino is arriving. May 2026 was the second warmest May on record globally across land and sea, behind only May 2024, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Wednesday. The average surface air temperature for May was 15.81°C — 0.55°C above the 1991–2020 average and 1.42°C above the estimated pre-industrial baseline of 1850–1900. The average sea surface temperature was 20.90°C, fractionally below the May 2024 record of 20.93°C.
Europe saw one of the most intense early-season heatwaves on record in May, with France, UK, Ireland and Portugal recording particularly severe conditions.