Fewer births, more deaths in Delhi during pandemic: Data

Delhi recorded 10.5% more births and 25.3% fewer deaths last year compared to 2021, as per data from the Union territory’s Civil Registration System (CRS).

Delhi recorded 10.5% more births and 25.3% fewer deaths last year compared to 2021, according to data from the Union territory’s Civil Registration System (CRS) released on Thursday, which showed one of the biggest year-on-year changes in both statistics in 2022.

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Even in terms of birth and death rates — number of births/deaths per thousand population — the 2022 numbers showed a significant departure from pre-pandemic trends.

The data showed that while Delhi’s birth rate has been gradually declining for a long time, the rate of this decline increased significantly during the pandemic years of 2020 and 2021. Inversely, death registrations saw a significant spike during the pandemic years before settling down again in 2022.

The birth rate in 2019, which was 18.4 children born per thousand population, fell to 14.9 in 2020 and then touched 13.1 in 2021. While this number recovered slightly to touch 14.2 in 2022, it still remains significantly lower than what it was before the pandemic.

As far as the death rate is concerned, data shows that mortality reduced significantly between 2021 and 2022 — which is understandable given the severity of the second wave of the pandemic in 2021 — and was also the lowest in nearly a decade (since 2013). In 2022, there were 6.07 deaths for every thousand residents, compared to 8.28 in 2021 and 7.03 in 2020.

The 2022-23 Economic Survey of the Delhi government had also published CRS based birth and death rates for 2021.

In absolute numbers, the number of births in Delhi jumped from 271,786 in 2021 to 300,350 in 2022. The number of births, meanwhile, fell from 171,476 in 2021, to 128,106 in 2022, the data showed. Infant mortality rate increased to 23.82 per 1,000 live births in 2022, from 23.6 in 2021, while maternal mortality rate also increased from 0.44 per thousand births in 2021, to 0.49 during 2022.

What do these numbers mean as far as a larger trend in Delhi’s population? The CRS data has limited utility because it only takes into account recorded births and deaths and does not exclude births or deaths on account of non-domicile population in the city-state.

A more accurate survey-based estimate of birth and death rates is given by the Sample Registration System (SRS) data compiled by the Registrar General of India (RGI), which works under the Union ministry of home affairs and is also the body responsible for conducting the census in India. RGI has not published SRS data for 2021 and 2022 so far. A comparison of long-term trends for Delhi’s CRS and SRS data shows that the former overestimates birth and death rates in comparison to the latter.

Having underlined the need for caution in reading too much into CRS numbers, two points can be made about Delhi’s birth and death rates through the data.

The increase in absolute number of deaths recorded in the CRS between 2020 and 2021 in Delhi is 28,687, which is the highest annual increase in absolute terms since 2007, the earliest for which this data is available in the report. Delhi’s total official Covid-19 death toll in 2021, according to HT’s Covid dashboard — this was based on government bulletins — is just 14,571. This suggests that the official death toll could have undercounted some Covid-19 deaths.

As far as the question of birth rate not recovering to even the pre-pandemic trend is concerned, one will have to wait for the census numbers — whenever they are available — to ascertain the number of births each year.

As far as absolute numbers are concerned, a total of 300,350 births were registered in Delhi in 2022 compared to 301,645 and 271,786 and births registered in 2020 and 2021. All these numbers are far lower than the over 360,000 births registered in the three years before 2020. While registered births have decreased before in the national capital, the pandemic led to an expected bigger decline.

For example, registered births fell by 17.6% in 2020 compared to 2019. In contrast, the highest fall recorded in this number between 2006 (the earliest year for which the report gives data) and 2019 was 3.2% in 2017. Registered births fell another 9.9% in 2021 (or 25.7% compared to 2019), when the deadliest Delta wave of Covid-19 affected Delhi. With the pandemic well within control in 2022, birth registrations rose 10.5% compared to 2021, but were still below 2019 levels, data shows.

Death registrations in Delhi were similarly lower than usual in 2022. 128,106 deaths were registered in 2022, 25% less than in 2021. To be sure, unlike birth registrations, death registrations had increased in Delhi in 2021, which was the deadliest year of the pandemic. Deaths registered in 2021 were 18% more than in 2019 and 20% more than in 2020. Therefore, the degree of decline in death registrations compared to 2019 (11.8%) is smaller than when it is compared to 2021.

The birth rate was 14.24 per thousand population, higher only than 2021 (when the rate was 13.13) since 2005, the first year for which the report gives this number. Similarly, the death rate was just 6.07, third lowest since 2005 and the lowest after 2013.

Officials said the new statistics will help them plan health care strategies in Delhi. “This information would be very useful for evolving policies for improved health management in the state, and will be of immense help to the policy makers, planners and research scholars interested in the study of vital statistics of the Capital,” said Niharika Rai, secretary planning.

Officials highlighted some statistics such as the rising share of births taking place within medical settings.

“It has been observed that except 2021, the proportion of institutional births out of total births has been continuously increasing. It jumped from 73.72% in 2005, to 94.02% in 2022. This means that a rise of 20 percentage points has taken place in the proportion of institutional births during preceding 18 years,” said a Delhi official referring to the report.

The report also indicated that the high dependency of people on government hospitals for births – 66.2% of the 282,389 institutional births in 2022 took place in government hospitals in Delhi.

Among non-institutional births, in 60.6% cases, the delivery occurred with the help of relatives, and others, which exposes that the access to healthcare needs to be extended.

Vineeta Sharma, associate professor of development economics at Kirori Mal College, said: “One of the important factors behind the increase in births in 2022 is possibly the return of people who had migrated to their home towns during lockdowns back to Delhi along with newer migrations in search of work when the situation improved. Another likelihood is the proliferation during the pandemic and continuation thereafter of work from home arrangements made it possible for women to look after children while continuing to be in the labour force. Other factors could be the insecurity arising out of the high number of deaths which occurred during pandemic.”