Gujarat braces as Biparjoy nears

According to the IMD, the cyclone is likely to cross Saurashtra, Kutch and neighbouring Pakistan on June 15

Biparjoy has intensified into extremely severe cyclonic storm and is likely to cross Saurashtra, Kutch and neighbouring Pakistan on June 15, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

A team of National Disaster Response Force deployed ahead of the landfall of cyclone Biparjoy, in Vadodara (ANI)

It is very likely to move nearly northwards till Wednesday morning, then move north-northeastwards and cross Saurashtra-Kutch and adjoining Pakistan coasts between Mandvi in Gujarat and Karachi in Pakistan around noon of June 15 as a very severe cyclonic storm, the Met department said, warning that the winds could go up to 150kmph.

“The extremely severe cyclonic storm Biparjoy over east central Arabian Sea moved slowly northward with a speed of two kmph during the past six hours and lay centred at 8.30pm over the same region... about 540km west of Mumbai, 390km south-southwest of Porbandar, 430km south-southwest of Devbhumi Dwarka, 520km south-southwest of Naliya and 690km south of Karachi (Pakistan),” IMD said in a bulletin.

Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Junagarh and Morbi districts of Saurashtra and Kutch on Wednesday, IMD said.

The intensity of rainfall would increase with heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places and extremely heavy rain at isolated places over Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka and Jamnagar and heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Porbandar, Rajkot, Morbi and Junagarh districts of Gujarat on June 15, IMD said.

Isolated heavy rainfall is likely over remaining districts of Saurashtra and north Gujarat region on Thursday, it said.

An extremely severe cyclonic storm classification denotes the highest of IMD’s four-grade nomenclature: a cyclonic storm one with three-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds in the 63-88 kmph range. A severe cyclonic storm has winds between 89 and 117 kmph, a very severe cyclonic storm between 118 and 165 kmph, and an extremely severe cyclonic storm between 166 and 220 kmph.

Biparjoy is yet another reminder of what the human-triggered climate crisis could hold for India and the world. The storm is similar to one in 2021, when cyclone Tauktae became the unusual system to batter India’s western coast -- most cyclones occur off the eastern cost in the Bay of Bengal. Like Tauktae, Biparjoy has intensified rapidly and if it follows further in its predecessor’s footsteps, it can lead to loss of life and property. Tauktae killed 57 people and left a trail of destroyed villages and flooded towns.

In its bulletin, IMD warned of rough sea conditions till Wednesday evening, and high (6-9m wave height) to phenomenal (9-14m wave height) thereafter till June 15.

In Kutch, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar, Jamnagarh and Morbi districts, storm surge of about 2 -3 m above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate low lying areas during the time of landfall.

“There can be total destruction of thatched houses, extensive damage to kutcha houses, some damage to pucca houses; bending/uprooting of power and communication poles; damage and flooding of roads; minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signalling systems; widespread damage to standing crops, plantations, orchards etc in Saurashtra and Kutch,” IMD warned.

Union home secretary Ajay Bhalla reviewed the preparedness of different wings of the central government and the Gujarat administration to deal with the cyclone, officials said.

The Union home secretary chaired a meeting of the National Executive Committee to review the preparedness of the central ministries, agencies and the government of Gujarat to deal with the impending cyclone, a ministry spokesperson said.

Adequate numbers of teams and assets of the National Disaster Response Force, army, navy, air force and the coast guard are being deployed to assist the Gujarat government in their preparedness, rescue and restoration efforts.

“We are briefing the government on the strength of the cyclone regularly. The National Disaster Management Authority will be evacuating people from vulnerable areas and preparing the Saurashtra and Kutch region for impacts of Biparjoy,” a senior IMD official said.

Biparjoy is the strongest cyclone in Arabian Sea after cyclone Tauktae, Vineet Kumar Singh, researcher from Typhoon Research Centre, Jeju National University, said.

“This cyclone has again undergone rapid intensification (second time since it developed on June 7) and intensified by 75 kmph to reach peak intensity of 195 kmph on Sunday. Biparjoy is also the strongest cyclone in Arabian Sea (for all seasons) after cyclone Tauktae,” he said.

“Also, this is only the second time in north Indian ocean history, that both the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal had a category 3 or higher intensity cyclone in the same pre-monsoon season. The last time this happened was in 2019,” he added.

Roxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said, “Wave rider buoy by INCOIS at Veraval shows 4 m high waves. Storm surge forecasts indicate 5-8 m high waves in the open seas. As cyclone intensity increases with Arabian Sea warming, these storm surges are also becoming larger. We need more wave buoys to monitor these along the coast and the open seas.”

Biparjoy’s slow movement has also raised concerns about weak monsoon conditions till at least mid-June as the cyclone has been pulling along convection and moisture along its track leading to a weak monsoon surge since it formed on June 7.

IMD’s extended range forecast released on Thursday showed rains picking up gradually during last week of June and during the week of June 30 to July 6. Rains haven’t started in interior parts of the country yet as forecast by IMD. IMD declared that monsoon has made onset over Kerala on June 8, seven days after it normally arrives in the state on June 1.

On Sunday, IMD said monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Karnataka, Goa, some parts of Konkan, most parts of Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, some parts of Andhra Pradesh, entire southwest and some more parts west-central Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northwest Bay of Bengal and remaining parts of northeast Bay of Bengal.

“There will be rainfall over the west coast due to Biparjoy approaching the Indian coast but I cannot say that it will pull the monsoon current along. It may enhance wind speed and rainfall briefly but once it dissipates around June 16, monsoon will be on its own again. We are not seeing very strong signals yet of the monsoon covering interior parts of the country,” the IMD official cited above said.

Biparjoy’s track was uncertain until Saturday mainly because the cyclone was between two anti-cyclones that had slowed down its pace. There was no consensus among models until the system came closer to the Indian coast.

“Biparjoy may help to advance monsoon to more parts of the Maharashtra coast. I am not finding any signals of Bay of Bengal strand of monsoon. It should wake up for monsoon to progress over interior parts. This cyclone may bring some rains over Gujarat, Rajasthan,” said M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences.