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Heatwave intensity set to spike, new hot spots likely: Govt study

By, New Delhi
Oct 25, 2023 05:46 AM IST

Heatwave frequency will increase as much as four to seven times, the analysis by DST’s Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research has predicted, which could increase five to 10 times in the mid and long term

Cities across India will get hotter, with northwestern, central and south-central parts of the country emerging as the new heatwave hot spots, a new analysis by the department of science and technology (DST) has projected, and scientists have also warned that the frequency of intense heat will increase substantially.

Scientists have warned that the frequency of intense heat will increase substantially. (HT Photo)

Heatwave frequency will increase as much as four to seven times, the analysis by DST’s Mahamana Centre of Excellence in Climate Change Research has predicted, which could increase five to 10 times in the mid and long term.

Under a moderate scenario – in which planet warming emissions peak around 2040 and then decline – the increase in heatwave frequency is projected to be around four to seven times. However, under a more severe scenario – in which emissions continue to rise throughout the century – the increase would five to 10 times.

The report has highlighted that northwestern, central and south-central parts of India are expected to emerge as the new heatwave hot spots, with the south-central region likely to record the largest increase in temperatures and heatwave days in the coming days.

“This high-resolution regional future projections of heatwave occurrence will serve as a baseline for developing transformational heat resilient policies and adaptation measures to reduce potential impact on human health, agriculture and infrastructure,” the report said.

A similar study warning of intense heat scenarios in various parts of the country was conducted by scientists of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The report released early this year said the duration of heatwaves in India increased by about 2.5 days between 1961 and 2021due to climate change and global warming.

It also highlighted that the heatwave scenario will only worsen in the coming years, stressing that by 2060, there is a possibility of an increase of about two heatwaves per season. The duration of heatwaves is also expected to rise by around 12 to 18 days, as opposed to the maximum of around two to four days, it pointed out.

“Model estimates suggested that by 2060, there will be an increase of about two heatwaves and an increase in the duration of heatwaves by 12-18 days,” the report by the weather bureau had said. ”Northwest India could experience about four heatwaves per season, of a total duration of 30 days.”

These studies will form the basis of the larger government plan to make Indian cities more resilient to future heat projections, an official of the department of science and technology said.

“Once we have realistic projections such as these, we will be engaging state and local governments to make plans for climate- resilient cities,” the official said, declining to be named. “Work around that is already ongoing, with the Centre making it mandatory to have heat action plans for all cities and conducting heat census for cities to mark and recognise the most vulnerable to heatwaves.”

The impact of climate change is already visible, with record-breaking temperatures being noted every year, according to Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology and climate change at Skymet Weather Services, a private forecaster.

“Cities have to be prepared to withstand such extreme recordings because such events are expected to increase in the coming years,” Palawat said.

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