In flood-prone Kerala, community-led forecasting gathers steam

In Kerala, community-driven flood monitoring groups gather vital data on water levels and rainfall to enhance early warning systems amid climate change challenges.

Every morning for the past four years, PS Baiju, a retired art teacher, and Akhil Suresh, a university student, in Puthenvelikkara village measure the water levels of the wells in their respective compounds.

Wayanad recorded the deadliest landslides ever in Kerala in July this year. (ANI)

Just around 100km away, dozens of school students residing in panchayats close to the Meenachil, a river prone to flooding in central Kerala, have a similar morning routine -- capturing the readings of rain gauges.

The data collected by Baiju and Suresh and around 100 others is sent to a WhatsApp Group run by the Community Resource Centre (CRC).

Similarly, the data collected by the students, and others is sent to another WhatsApp Group, this one run by Meenachil River Protection Council (MRPC).

Both CRC and MRPC are community-driven flood monitoring systems, and both, and many others like them, are a response to the 2018 deluge the state witnessed, one that is called the great flood in Malayalam (mahapralayam), and one that resulted in the death of 483 people and damage estimated at ₹40,000 crore.

All are powered by daily measurements of ground- and river water levels, and rainfall, meticulously recorded by volunteers and compiled by activists and scientists at the community level in different regions of Kerala. These community initiatives are fast becoming crucial cogs in the creation of early warning systems for floods in a state where climate change continues to pose significant challenges. Completely operated by people, such systems are proving to be the difference when the response of government machinery during emergencies has been found wanting in the state.

In the past few years, Kerala has also witnessed localised extreme rainfall events, triggering flash floods and landslides and raising the need for reliable hyperlocal weather information. In August, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) service noted that heavy one-day rainfall events over northern parts of the state have become 17% more intense in the last 45 years as a result of global warming. Researchers at WWA revealed that the region in Wayanad district, which recorded the deadliest landslides ever in Kerala in July this year in which over 230 people were killed, received 140mm of rainfall in a day – a quarter of the rain London receives annually.

That’s where the community initiatives come in.

“The floods in 2018 propelled us to begin the ‘Save Meenachil’ WhatsApp group which today has hundreds of people as members, from activists to panchayat representatives to scientists to locals. We realised the urgency to dispel misinformation among the public and instead give out correct warnings based on scientific data. We began with recruiting volunteers to record rainfall levels using gauges set up in different areas, from the Western Ghats where the Meenachil originates down to the Vembanad Lake into which it empties,” said Eby Emmanuel, secretary of the MRPC.

The group began recording the water levels in the Meenachil River, upgrading the quality of the rain gauges to get more accurate readings, started organising climate action groups, and hosted sessions in schools across the Kottayam region on the impact of climate crisis.

“The initial success of our efforts came in 2021 when we were able to accurately predict the possibility of a flood in a settlement near Natassery. Based on the data we had, we alerted the authorities and we were able to shift all the people from there. When the area eventually got flooded, water rose to the level of a person’s neck. A major disaster was mitigated,” said Emmanuel.

Today, Emmanuel says 60% of the climate volunteers of the group are school students. Measurements are taken daily from 170 rain gauges and 13 river scales, compiled carefully, and abnormalities are singled out and shared with experts and hazard analysts of the state disaster management authority (SDMA). An artificial intelligence (AI)-driven app is being set up, he said, which will help visualise the potential rise in the water level of the Meenachil depending on the rain that falls in the hills.

“Today, we have hundreds of people as volunteers sending us real-time data. We understand the limits of the government machinery. For example, the district collectorate asks us for data on days we get heavy rain before it declares holiday for educational institutions. The hazard analyst of the SDMA is present in our WhatsApp group and monitors the data. Results get delivered when the government machinery combines with community-driven initiatives like ours,” he said.

CRC, operating in the precarious Chalakudy-Periyar basin on the border of Ernakulam and Thrissur districts, harbours the same goal – ensuring coordination and minimising the impact of disasters.

The small village of Puthenvelikkara, located in the Chalakudy-Periyar basin, was completely engulfed by the floods in 2018 mainly due to unscientific and disastrous dam management. MP Shajan, the vice-president of CRC, says since the two principal dams on the rivers, Peringalkuthu and Sholayar, are located in Thrissur district and the areas prone to flooding in the downstream region are in Ernakulam district, the coordination between officials of the two districts is pertinent.

“But even on days when the rainfall crosses 100mm, there is zero exchange of information. Warnings about possible floods do not come from Thrissur. We have two irrigation regulators near Puthenvelikkara and if the shutters are not lifted on time, villages will get flooded. That’s why we began community-level efforts to record groundwater and rainfall levels and disseminate the information among locals. Apart from flood forecasting, we also use the data to anticipate droughts and shape farming practices,” said Shajan.

CRC has partnered with Equinoct, a startup, to design a dashboard for impact-based flood forecasts and warning systems. The website, launched by Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan in Kochi on September 28, can be accessed by the district administration to help make important decisions during emergencies based on the data collected from over 100 rain gauges located across three districts.

Kalabhavan Jayan, a mimicry artiste whose home is located on the banks of the Chalakudy river in Thrissur district, is a beneficiary of early warnings issued by the Chalakudy River Protection Forum, an outfit that works closely with CRC and spearheads community-level initiatives in areas close to the river.

“In the first week of August, when it rained heavily in our area, I got messages from the Chalakudy River Protection Forum warning of a potential flood. I and my family gathered whatever we could and shifted to a relief camp. Sure enough, around 2 am, floodwaters from the river entered my home and stayed for around 24 hours,” said Jayan, whose family was one of at least 1,000 families shifted due to timely warnings.

At the same time, he says his home wouldn’t have flooded if officials in charge of the Peringalkuthu dam had opened the shutters on time. “They delayed it until it was too late,” he said.

SP Ravi, convenor of the Chalakudy River Protection Forum, who is working on creating detailed flood management and river action plans, says there have been mixed reactions from the administration to their warnings and inputs. “Authorities and communities have to work in a mutually complementary way. We are only here to help,” he said.

“With Kerala being extremely prone to climate change, community-level initiatives hold a lot of significance. A top-down approach does not work at all. Warnings must be communicated to people in the simplest language possible.”