Karur tragedy turns into opportunity for TN parties ahead of 2026 assembly polls

Even though the BJP is reaching out to bring Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) to the NDA’s fold, their ally AIADMK is also viewing it as a chance to re-open its option with Vijay

Chennai: The tragedy at actor-politician Vijay’s rally in Karur that killed 41 people is turning into an opportunity for political reconfigurations in the state ahead of the 2026 assembly elections.

The Karur stampede site where 41 people were killed at a political rally last month. (ANI)

Even though the BJP is reaching out to bring Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) to the NDA’s fold, their ally AIADMK is also viewing it as a chance to re-open its option with Vijay.

Before the AIADMK led by Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS) re-joined the BJP in April, the party’s first option was to bring Vijay to their side. But his demands such as power sharing and being chief minister for the first half of the five year government wasn’t acceptable to the once mighty AIADMK which has weakened with factionalism, turncoats and successive electoral defeats since 2016. So BJP leaders also want to ensure that the leaders in the AIADMK do not consider walking out of the NDA months ahead of the 2026 elections to form an alliance with TVK. Particularly because the Draividan major would have an upper hand over TVK which is on the backfoot after the stampede, said a BJP leader, who did not wish to be identified.

Vijay’s advisors have all along wanted him to fight alone (despite being untested in elections) with smaller parties on the promise of forming a coalition government, should they win. For Vijay, who launched TVK in 2024 aiming to turn his cult following into political capital by positioning himself as a political alternative to the DMK and ideological alternative to the BJP, joining the national party would discredit his fiery cinematic speeches against them and on which his brand as a politician has been built. “But, anything is possible in politics,” said a senior AIADMK leader who was part of the former ministers who joined EPS to meet Union home minister Amit Shah in Delhi on September 16. “A lot is going on right now (in political circles) after the stampede. A clear picture is going to emerge in November on the alliances.”

Though Vijay had been ruthless in his speeches against the DMK and BJP, he has not so far attacked EPS. Not beyond describing the AIADMK as opportunistic for being with the BJP. And the AIADMK general secretary has absolved Vijay of any wrongdoing in Karur and fully blamed the ruling DMK for mismanagement of the crowd. This is despite EPS being the first to be affected after the Madras HC on October 3 restricted political rallies and gatherings on state and national roads until TN draws up an SoP for it based on the Karur case. And the TN police have cancelled permission for EPS’ rallies scheduled on October 5 and 6 on state and national roads. TVK’s leaders however say that Vijay will still maintain his distance with the AIADMK and BJP. “There is no alliance talk with anyone now,” said a personal involved with TVK’s functioning.

A BJP leader reiterated that their singular focus is to cobble up an alliance with everyone possible to defeat the ruling DMK. After it emerged that Congress leader Rahul Gandhi spoke to chief minister MK Stalin before speaking to Vijay over the phone in the aftermath of the stampede, the NDA had increased its outreach to rope in the mass actor and greenhorn. “It is the responsibility of officials to ensure that the public are safe in any party’s rally,” a state leader said. “A few in the AIADMK who did not want to come back to our alliance may think of going with Vijay alone but the leadership is clear that we have to fight this election together.”

BJP national president JP Nadda sent a delegation of 8 MPs of the NDA to Karur to investigate the causes that led to the stampede. The fact finding team of politicians including Anurag Thakur, Tejasvi Surya and Hema Malini have blamed the state government.

“All parties are using this tragedy as an opportunity,” said political analyst Maalan Narayanan. “The BJP wants the lion’s share of anti-DMK votes to come to them. The AIADMK wants Vijay’s vote bank of fans. The DMK doesn’t want to punish Vijay but the party is showing its allies and cadre that TVK is a non-starter. But the opposition overplaying by blaming the state and supporting Vijay for the stampede may backfire when Vijay comes out as having done nothing wrong.”

Those who walked out of the NDA recently - O Panneerselvam and TTV Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK)- were looking at Vijay for their own political resurrection and with the gears shifted since the stampede, the once powerful leaders continue to be in the margins. “Joining the NDA is not an option for Vijay but we have to see if he will soft pedal by not attacking the alliance,” Narayanan says.

The stampede happened on the night of September 27 and it took Vijay three days to release a video in which he blamed Stalin and glossed over his own immediate exit after the tragedy.